Mid Season update

No doubt that Nicky Henderson , Tim Vaughaun and Barry Geraghty are the heroes of the season so far, with the villains being the form of Paul Nicholls hotpots, Jonjo, Sam Thomas and his unseats and the unbelievable way in which the Northern novice hurdles are run, half of the field are not off !!! I have to say that I still cant get winners from certain yards with Howard Johnson, Nigel Twiston Davies and Phillip Hobbs

Punting High - the wonderous day when Wilson Renwick had a treble at Sedgefield - number 4 would have been worth 20k !!!

Punting Low - not backing Kangaroo Court when it won, too busy working arghhhhhh

Horse to follow - Three horses for me on this list, Chaser - Trafford Lad , Hurdler - Numide on soft ground and handicapper getting lined up for a punt - Mat Hill

I think that my Cheltenham fancies would be -
Champion Hurdle - Sizing Europe
Stayers Hurdle - Kasbah Bliss
Queen Mother - Master Minded
Sun Alliance - Trafford Lad
Supreme - Mad Max

and remember that horses under 4/1 have a shocking record at the festival !!!

Cheltenham Paddy Power Meeting

The three day meeting marks the beginning of the jump season, with an unusual occurrence soft ground and a cracking meeting.

This week has already had a good start with a Lenny Lungo treble at Sedgefield and a cracking winner at Carlisle Skippers Brig. Its fantastic to see Wilson Renwick riding winners, cracking lad with great talent.

Cheltenham sees the start of the big guns and I am looking forward to seeing Tatenan, Numide, Bible Lord, Razor Royale and the potentially top class Giergio Quercus. The best bet of the three days is Numide on Sunday and with my past Cheltenham record will be my only winner (NUMIDE wins in style, above).

A quiet week abounds with Kelso the next stop on Friday.

the 4 day trip

The four day trip to the Northern Tracks of Newcastle, Wetherby and Carlisle is over and a lot has been learned. The first is don’t stay at the Golden Lion in Leyburn , it is a shocker and I mean a shocker ! and the second is that four days is too long !

Day 1 - Newcastle

Enjoyable days racing with no real stand out stars on show, with the novice MILLSTREAM looking like a horse to follow.

Day 2 - Wetherby

The best of the Northern tracks, with a good set of horses on show, it is quieter day than the Saturday and I like the freedom to rome around. The horses to follow from the day is YES SIR, back to his best on fast ground will win again if the handicapper doesn’t murder him.

Day 3 – Wetherby

A few hefty price tags on show and yet again a Howard Johnson horse gets beat on his debut when backed as if defeat is out of the question, the nicest horse on show was the mare MY PETRA and the small STATE OF PLAY has won is only race of the season. PYSCHOMONDO is a top class horse from the Ascot meeting , he has a huge engine and will be seen to better effect going left handed. Missed a big price winner in the shape of SENTRY DUTY that signalled a retreat to the bar and more money down the drain !!!

Day 4 – Carlisle – a day to far for The Adman

I don’t like the card, I am cream crackered after a huge lack of sleep due to the rampaging children on the corridors of the Golden Lion and I should just watch and learn or back SHOREACRES at the away meeting. I lose a few quid and am that tired that I am not even that bothered !!! TIDAL BAY wins, but didn’t impress me in his physical looks and the way he carried his head – he would need to improve to win at Cheltenham for me.

Jumps Jumps Jumps

Well the big guns are out already in the novice brigade up north with some big money buys showing clean pair of hooves to a few slow boats from the flat.

DOESLESSTHANME - bolted up at Kelso and Howard Johnson also unleashed DOOR BOY on the same card - the first named was fitter so the performance of DOOR BOY would take higher merit. KALAHARI KING won but was only 80% fit, didnt strike me as a chaser on shape and size and might struggle at the larger tracks when jumping is the key. DIAMOND HARRY looked classy when winning his first start over hurdles despite being badly hampered all the way from three out and STRIKING ARTICLE is the best chaser I have seen in the novice ranks.

The 4 day Northern Trip is nearly with us with NEWCASTLE , WETHERBY and CARLISLE seeing a visit from the ADMAN.

Jumps Season 2008

Its back at last , some proper racing with loads more fun !

The first meeting at Kelso has been done with a really good bumper winner MCMURROUGH one to follow closely.

plenty more to come over the coming weeks

The last run to the line..................

Well the biggest bet of my life has just until the 26th to run - can we find 9 winners from some very quiet stables ?

I am not hopeful but hope that some of the following will win and run well in April -

The Pious Prince - must have a race in him somewhere with fences maybe the making of him

Stand on Me - must pick up a race soon , the 2 mile chase in the north are quite at the moment

Rimsky Korshakov -who is now handicapped must pick up a race if he gets a mark around the 85 to 95 mark

Ballyvogue - will be Tony dobbins last winner - back to win a fortune


The Adman

Aintree day two

Good day 1 with some nice winners and the two each way big prices running 2nd at 25/1 and 20/1 !

Day 2 :

You might think I am mad but Master Minded is a lay for me at 2/7 , 4furlongs up and needs a break of 30 days between races to run to his best in what is a virtual match VOR POR USTEDES must be a bet at 7.6 on BETFAIR.

I fancy TAZBAR but SOUFLEUR is a bet at 10/1 each way - will travel well enough to get out in running.

BLUE BAJAN is a must have each way bet against CAPTAIN CEE BEE at 12/1 , he will love the track and the better going.

MISTER TOP NOTCH is exactly that but at 4/1 I would rather be with BIBLE LORD at 12/1.

The best of the day though is the very smart YONDER in the mares bumper - she is very very useful and will be campaigned on the flat after her bumper runs

Todays Bets:

BIBLE LORD small stakes each way

BLUE BAJAN each way

YONDER win

Aintree

I am for some reason really looking forward to Aintree far more than Cheltenham , I have an inkling I am about to win a few quid !

Peter Bowen and Howard Johnson's favorite meeting so watch the horses like

LENNON, SERABAD and SOUFLEUR

Day 1 :
Lots of Cheltenham horses following on , KAUTO STAR and INGLIS DREVER start day 1 what a double act - the double is about 5/2 but I dont fancy either of them - FRANCHOEK steps up in trip , I thought he had had enough at Cheltenham so must be a LAY.

Bets
SONEVUSHI and CHRISTY BEAMISH small stakes

DEV - Maximum E/W if the ground is good - will take some catching round there LENNON is the danger.

FAASEL loves the track and is a good E/W bet

and retrieval mission on COUNTY ZEN

DAY 2 has some big guns out BLUE BAJAN is motoring at home and SERABAD will win wherever he runs.

Hexham fun

Well back after my financial woes of Cheltenham, it is time to have a good punt and where better than to start at the Hexham Puddle.

Today is a day that if you back favs at Hexham through the card I am sure you will struggle to come out on top.

Bets today

2.10 Lay Place and Win BANOGE - Lennies horses are running terrible and 7/4 is just no price
2.40 Lay win and place TOY GUN - struggles with his jumping and was out on his feet last Sunday 7/4 no price again
3.55 Lay win and Place SANTA STEFANO - dont like the horse esp on the ground EVS is a shocking price

I think there are a few other poor favs but the above is enough for the blog

Saturday 15th

After Cheltenham there is only one thing to do, get back on the horse and get back to what you know - backing horses to trade in running and losers !!!

Bet to Trade -
Best Prospect 9/1, lay to get stake back and very low after the last
Busker Royal 9/1, lay to get stake back and mid lay after the last
Harry Flashman 9/1, lay to get stake back and very low lay after the last
Herne Bay 33/1 lay to get stake back at 3.1 then smaller lay after two and towards last

Win bet - Cripsey Brook and thrown in horse if they are bothering Film festival 5.35 Newcastle

The Calm after the storm

After the greatest three days racing ever and the AD MAN licking his financial wounds here are a few thoughts -

The age and finishing Stats didnt stand up this year with fine performances from Master Minded, Inglis Drever and Katchit defying stats and proving their undoubted talent.
Cheltenhams greatest stat stood up again though !
The Under 4/1 fav losers were out in force:
Kauto Star (evs), Franchoek (11/10), Ashkazar (15/8), Noland (7/4), Sizing Europe (2/1), Wonderkid (5/2), Vor Por ustedes (5/2), The Listener (10/3), Dont Push It (5/2), Zaarito (3/1), Chumba Wumba (10/3), My Petra (3/1)

13 Qualifiers - 12 Losers 4 Unplaced , 1 winner Inglis Drever 11/8 Win

The performance though of the week was DENMAN - simply the best I have seen - POWER and Stride are just unbelievable - I have to see him in the flesh at some point.

Key Notes:
Bad week at the office for Noel Meade and Philip Hobbs two outstanding trainers had very quiet meetings.
Good week at the office for Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Howard Johnson

best Ride of the week was AP McCoy on Refinement , and my unluckiest moment of the week
The hold upjockeys had many poor rides with two top Irish lads having some interesting moments - the difference in pace and ground left a few nearly moments.
















next year double on paper

Cheltenham is coming and here are the fancies

After a gusty wet day at Ayr when racing probably should of been off , the kitty is still intact and the Cheltenham fancies abound - the cards are done and the tips are here.

Day 1:
The day is the starting point of many dreams and I usually know my fate for the week after the first few races.

Supreme Novice -
Top class race to start the meeting and as usual the Brits v the Irish - I have come down on the side of two horses - KHYBER KIM and SENTRY DUTY the best of the Irish likely to be CORK ALL STAR

Arkle -
NOLAND is a stand out bet with the best each way choice MOON OVER MIAMI

Champion Hurdle -
I really like OSANA in the race and if the ground is quick HARCHIBALD will travel like the winner and get out with a lay as 9 yr olds dont win the Champion Hurdle

Day 2:
Ballymore Novice
The Ballymore Novice is a cracker of a race and although I love FORPADDYDEPLASTER I think that TRAFFORD LAD will be my selection

Coral Cup
LEG SPINNER is thrown in but I really like CLARNAZAR and ORBIT O GOLD at prices - interestingly the Irish dont seem to have many thrown well handicapped horses this year for the chases or hurdles

National Hunt Chase
BEANTOWN is my next best bet of the meeting as he has both race and course form and bolted up last time

Bumper
APT APPROACH and ZAARITO are both the horses to beat in the bumper with nothing between them on form

Day 3:

The Racing Post Plate
BIBLE LORD is well handicapped and is the third best bet of the week , my only doubts being extremes in ground conditions.

Pertemps Final
BACKBORD on good ground will be the best bet of the week on anything but that , he will be a leave alone

Day 4:
Never a day that I do well on so I will be watching DENMAN, ASHKAZAR,CARUTHERS and COUNTY ZEN

Short priced double:

DENMAN and NOLAND

YANKEE:
KHYBER KIM, BIBLE LORD, BEANTOWN, BACKBORD

Post Cheltenham Blues

There is no doubt that there are certain weeks of the year that make you miserable, and the pre Cheltenham week week is as they say a shocker. There is nothing to grow into across the week with the likes of Wolverhampton , Lingfield and Stratford hardly getting the juices flowing ! even the northern meetings pale into insignificance as we wait for next Tuesday an the roar of the Irish, the Guinness tent, the Arkle Bar , the tones of Simon Holt and the expectation of can I get myself in front over the four days?. The head down heart break of Juveigneiur and Character Building as they both dont quite get up coupled with the winning feeling of Cloudy Lane and Katchit, I wouldnt swop it for the world. Long after I have left this mortal coil horses will be winning gold cups and champion hurdles and until the day I die I will be spending four days watching the greatest event in the world. Just 8 nights to go .....................................

Friday and Saturday

Kelso on Saturday will see plenty of action from various yards again I am keeping most of my powder dry for Cheltenham festival but across the next two days the following horses should run well.

Doncaster Friday 3.05 - The 10 yr old BIG BERTHA is well in on all ratings with a professional jockey on top , could be a good bit of placing by Micky Hammond.

Kelso Saturday - Rimsky Korsakov is a lovely horse but will probably have it all on to beat the impressive Los Nadis. Circassian will run a lot better than his last run as he cannot go Right handed, with the stable under a cloud though he will probably be a leave alone. The top class Lennon runs but will surely struggle against two well weighted rivals in First Look and KILMACKILOGUE.
MR CRYSTAL warms up for the FRED WINTER at the festival and will run well perhaps without winning .

And finally the first bet of the festival is BACKBEAT in the Pertemps Final 8/1 is a huge price a fighter and a stayer - huge chance.

Boom Boom from The Racewatcher

Top tip from the Racewatcher, MYTHICAL AIR is a bet in the 7 . 20 at Wolverhampton the big prices have gone so some drift will follow - working well and is better than this class

Ayr 21st February

Sadly I am not going today - off to Aberdeen for some unknown reason to do some work !

Some chances today on horses noted that I thought would come on for their last runs
3 10 Ayr, I thought was a weak race and that depending on the paddock view that both MERIGO and STAND ON ME should run.
4.50 Ayr, I think that KATUPULT will be far too short to bet but FISHING INSTRUCTOR is a huge price and will carry each way money.

Cold Cold Cold

Its freezing again, cold cold at least the jockeys can get a well earned rest!!!!

Of the update horses Standin Obligation ran well at Kelso, a good 2nd, will kick on to better races as the season goes on and perhaps even the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. Desert Rat ran a blinder at Musselburgh 16/1 3rd, will win at a small track when emphasis is on speed not stamina.

Howard Johnson will send Tidal Bay to the Sun Alliance and although some of his team are under a cloud the impressive Kealshore Boy and Striking Ambition are still well on course for the festival. Watch out for Treacle Moon when she runs as she will have an each way chance wherever sited in a handicap.

Peter Monteith's Sinatas ran a great race in first time handicap country and despite hating the ground and jumping average nearly won - expect a good run in about 3 weeks. Quiciyo just needed his last run at Kelso (4th) and is still rated topclass.

Kelso Valentines Day

Short and sweet -

three to look at QUICIYO - lovely horse weak race , top class for the future and BERWICK LAW will today be the day ? but the only bet is 1pt win 1pt place STANDIN OBLIGATION

Musselburgh 13th February

A lot of very short priced favs again for the punters/layers to back or lay - as usual the question will be how many of these so called good things can win?

Middleton Dene is likely to go off a short priced fav in the first and could be a lay with a double penalty- LOGANS RUN is top class and cost a fortune so could be the likely victor. HALLA SAN was mighty impressive last time he won at Musselburgh and if reproducing that form will take the beating. I dont however like betting Fahey horses odds on, and it took a canny Graham Lee to coax this character home. Bet or Lay ? The key is to look for the huge paddock tell on Fahey
horses , if the long paddock rug stays on until the last possible moment in the ring - it's a hit the lay button.

Honest toil at Ayr

A couple of good meetings this week with good profit at both Musselburgh and Ayr- in truth it wasnt from backing winners !!!

Highlight's of the week have included two lays in three days of NEVER SO BLUE of Venetia Williams and taking my profit on BLUE BAJAN in the Tote Trophy.

Paddock watching has been interesting this week with the padock watchers getting caught out by the looks of a few winners and improver's notably DIGITAL MEDIA and CAMPANERO- it seems that the paddock is not giving many clues at the moment.

On to WETHERBY, NEWCASTLE, MUSSELBURGH and KELSO with a few horses to watch, ALL OUT FOR SEVEN, DESERT RAT and GRATTON LODGE.

Best ride I have seen in ages and the kid gets 10 days off!!

I have never in my life been so annoyed about a stewards decision as I am today at Catterick. I have seen the jockey Wilson Renwick ride the hugely tempremental PRIMUS INTER PARUS to victory in a cracking 2m 3 f race , cajoeling, pushing, and prodding a horse that has a mind of his own to readily outscore Flake. The stewards have not only given the jockey 3 days for interference but also 7 further days for slapping a horse down the neck and excessive use of the whip.
10 DAYS !!! Denis O Reagan got 14 days for riding a finish a circuit early - how can the punishment be similar. The worst part is that Wilson Renwick did nothing wrong and has been the victim of the old school getting one over the younger brigade, in fact you could argue that the ride was up there with any ride of the month given by At The Races. The thing that sticks in the throat is that on a moody horse in shocking conditions the stewards have penalised someone for trying his best and performing to his best ability, in that weather you can only say that the stewards have not the first time given Renwick a rough time.

I applaud the comments of the trainer Noel Wilson who went out of his way to tell the viewers on Racing UK that "Wilson is the second best jockey in the North with only Graham Lee being his superior.....I cant believe that more trainers do not use him"

It is obvious to me that some jockeys are lucky and some not, and after losing numerous rides to lost meetings I just hope that the 10 days off do not see Wilson losing many potential winners. My final message to the stewards is simple -if you genuinely think that you made the correct decision then no wonder you cant get your expenses right.

The Ad Mans Northern horses to follow

I am enjoying the racing at the moment, and cannot wait for the northern swing to get going - jumps meetings full of northern horses with some hand picked gambles ready to pluck the funds from fellow Betfair punters! I have seen many horses in the last 6 months in the flesh and these are the impressive horses to follow.

Howard Johnson has assembled a fantastic team and the big three to follow from his stable are :
Tidal Bay, Kealshore Boy and Striking Ambition - all three will win top class races and have already proved that if you can afford the purchase price sometimes you will buy class acts.

Lenny Lungo has had a very quiet year and I would expect a few fire works as the year goes on, I fully expect the classy Berwick Law to win a good handicap, All Out For Seven a bumper and I expect Wild Cane Ridge to win a really good handicap.

Peter Monteith is having a fantastic year and the class of horse at Whitebog Farm is the best yet. Sinatas will win a handicap over 2m 4f , Quiciyo is potentially the best horse in the yard and the talented Los Nadis will continue to win races. Of the David Johnson horses there is a huge belief in the yard that Standin Obligation is an ideal type for the Scottish National.

Lucinda Russell and Peter Scudamore have been seen at most northern meetings and I have no doubt that the "Scu" influence is bringing better horses and more staying power - Quws Law is the horse to watch .

I have been a bit surprised with the Nicky Richards team this year, maybe its the Rose Davidson influence or the wind down of Tony Dobbin but I feel like they are under achieving. They have some big owners and of the stars According to John, Turpins Green and Monets Garden have all shown semblance of their obvious huge talent this year. I cannot however give a horse that has taken my breath away, with only Money Trix (and I didnt see that in the flesh ) and Viking Rebel staying in my focus.

It is the first year I haven't owned a horse for about 7 years and my old stable Micky Hammond has a mixed set of horses, some are very slow (Micky is very good at picking races for them) but there is a good mix of ex Flat horses and some nice ex Tom Costello horses like La Pantera Rosa and Four Franks. I have two real dark horse's though Desert Rat - will win a handicap and I fully expect Swains Bridge to win a seller before the year end.

I have seen two quality bumper horses this year in the North, Katapult of Alan Swinbank's and the lovely mare of Dudley Moffat's Lets Go Girls.

February Stats and Trainers to back/avoid !

I love February for racing as the big stables start preparing for the two big festivals. This leads to certain horses from certain stables running with similar consistency, year after year. I have listed my own stats on certain stables and races to avoid in February.

STABLES to BACK :
N Henderson
T Easterby
T George

Ones to back by race :
N Henderson , P Webber and V Williams NOVICE CHASERS
P Webber, R Guest HCAP CHASERS

Ones to avoid:
C Mann - Nov Hcap Chasers

Welcome to the Northern Swing

Well it is finally here the Northern Swing as I call it with racing in the north on numerous days to visit - with the weather the way it is you just never know when though !





30th Jan - Newcastle, 1st Feb - Catterick, 2nd Feb -Doncaster and Wetherby, 3rd Feb - Musselburgh ***, 4th Feb - Hexham ***, 5th Feb - Sedgefield, 6th Feb - Carlisle, 9th Feb - Ayr ***, 11th Feb -Wetherby, 12th Feb - Newcastle, 13th Feb - Musselburgh, *** 14th Feb - Kelso ***, 18th Feb -Carlisle, 19th Feb - Sedgefield, 21st Feb - Ayr,23rd Feb - Newcastle.

Now the trick is always to take a profit so we will see how the month goes with a little help from The Fisherman, The Guru and the Race Watcher ! Good luck to all the Inside the Stable track team ! and of course the 6 or 7 horses that are now handicapped !!!
*** - will be venturing forth- rain and god willing !

Saturday 26th January

THE AD MAN has a Saturday shocker !!!

A competitive days racing at two of the best jump courses in the UK , what more could you ask for on a Saturday ! The best value on the Cheltenham card is the improving FAASEL in the 2.40, his form behind Tamarinbleu gives him a huge chance at around 16/1 2pts win 4 pts place if all eight run. RESULT : Faasel never travelled an inch and the horse that was pulled up in the Tamarinbleu race won the race , the ground can be the only problem as he was backed from 25s to 12s !

The highly impressive LUXURIX needs to win this to go on to the TOTE GOLD TROPHY and will carry a good investment at around 4/1 - 3pts win RESULT: Jumped well but didnt finish his race .
Over at Doncaster with the wind drying out the course a small bet on the well weighted ITS MOON at around 20/1 will be had in the 1.20 , with a follow up win and place bet on the classy STANDIN OBLIGATION who is working very well at home and seems back to his early form for David Pipe. RESULT : Hated the track and ran accordingly !
The best bet of the day and a near maximum investment is THEATRE GIRL 6 pts win in the 1.55 who ran the hugely impressive KHYBER KIM to 3 lengths last time , the best form in the race and is not even favorite ! RESULT: Theatre Girl was just outpointed by Chumba Wumba , better jockey won the race.
Remember the key on the value bets is to trade in running to lock in profit !


THE GURU Cracks a Double !!!
JP McManus can complete a short price double at Prestbury Park with AIGLE D'OR(1.00) WON 7/4 and FRANCHOEK(3.15) WON 11/8. I hope Freddie Williams has taken his deep satchel with him.
PADDOCK POINTER - On his only defeat at Prestbury Park FRANCHOEK constantly swished his tail in the pre parade and paddock.

The Bridal Horse double...........................! Friday 25th January

Two divisions of a novice hurdle and two of my favorite back to lay horses are short priced market leaders. In BLUE BAJAN (LEFT) 12.50 we have a horse that is top class with a top pilot - will I be playing at 8/11 ? - probably not !!! He will win and even I cant put up a lay even at 1.21 ! Sneek the 20s in the TOTE TROPHY before the race though. The second division sees the enigmatic BEST PROSPECT return to the
track , at around 13/8 he is not a win bet ! Is there anything that can beat him ?or at least take him on inside the final furlong when he will pull up in front ? I am not sure but there will be a lay bet in running - as he will stop !!! it might just be after the line though !!!

The 3.05 was a really good race, one to watch again and get your notebook out ROSBAY, HI NOD, AUREATE, AYPEEYES, KENTUCKY BOY(NOT knocked about HCAP MARK), SONGE(WINS WELL), QUICK WILL (MUSSELBURGH TYPE) , GALLANT NUIT (NICE EFFORT STAYING ON FROM THE REAR) will all be worth watching.

3 pt win TOTE GOLD TROPHY - BLUE BAJAN 20/1
RESULT: Wins easily and is now 12/1 for TOTE TROPHY

Lay in running 5pts at 1.31 BEST PROSPECT
RESULT:Not matched

Musselburgh 23rd January

At last some racing up north , and I would imagine a potential day of shocks on ground that will be at worst very slow !!! The racing is the usual fair with typical handcaps mixed with a couple of useful novice hurdles.

The best race to view is the 2.30 with some really useful horses running with many intentions!
ALONG THE NILE is the top weight with a double penalty, and this horse has plenty of class and could still be on the improve his welterweight of 12.4 must however stop him against some useful flat performers - the most noted is a lovely horse called KERRIMUIR LASS with Mick Fitzgerald booked on a rare visit to Musselburgh. This horse runs well from the front and has schooled well and would be a bet if looking well at something like 7 or 8 to 1. Others to note would be Veiled Applause, Compromizenotension and the useful Halla San.
Result - HALLA SAN won the race and looked very well in the paddock and was well backed, Kerrimuir Lass was in need of the run and drifted out to 12s on Betfair it was no Bet.



The favourite backers will be out in force in the first race (1.00) with a likely short price in IM DELILAH a horse that was running ok at Kelso when coming down , I think there will be something to beat her and I like the look of LA VECHIA SCHIOLA who gets the 4 yr old allowance - she beat the very useful Mr Crystal at Catterick. She was well beaten last time after a huge mistake at the second , Scottish owned and cost a few bob after her Catterick win she will be tough to beat.
Im Delilah drifted like a barge and LA VECHIA SCHIOLA ran quite well to be 3rd at around 8/1 - losing her race on the bend.


The 1.30 is only just better than a seller and I expect the favourite to run well PERTEMPS NETWORK (WON 6/4)who wasnt knocked about last time. The 2.00 is a typical handicap and I wont be playing, but I will be entertained all day by the lovely guys and girls of RADIO FORTH who sponsor the race -so I hope the rain stays off for the paddock view and best turned out award !

The 3.00 and 3.30 are again tough handicaps , I will take a look in the paddock and maybe find a back or lay . The bumper will be a good watch and I believe that there are a few very nice horses SPELL CHECKER, WIPE YOUR EYE and NEW DANCER but two at huge prices will be HONEST MAN (Looked well and ran a blinder in 6th) and OVER THE BORDER ( LOOKED POOR) a paddock inspection will tell me what I need to know.

Not a betting card for me , I will enjoy my day out and keep my stakes low.
BET - 1pt win KERRIMUIR LASS at 7.0 or better with a view to lay to take a profit RESULT NO BET AS NEEDED THE RUN.
BET - 1 pt win LA VEICHIA SCHIOLA at 4.5 or better. RESULT 3rd at Each WAY Price

Saturday Nap

THE RACE READER
Todays best bet is BINOCULAR 12.35 Ascot 2pts win - Hendersons Triumph Hurdle Horse
RESULT WON 6/4 - Doing handstands - 25/1 to 8/1 for Triumph Hurdle

THE AD MAN
Small each way on PENZANCE 1.10 Ascot 0.5 pts e/w
RESULT Pulled Up

It is a quiet week for going racing !

Not a lot on this week with the only northern meeting being at Newcastle on Wednesday , and alas some of us have to work ! The next couple of weeks will be quiet before a busy spell up north, with all the cancelled meetings perhaps the BHB will put a few extra meetings on - I doubt it mind !

John the Moles Saturday Nap

2pt win 2 pt Place
1.45 Kempton

Get on the General Lee - GO AMWELL RESULT 4th (The fate of all good each ways)
Back in the place market pre race then in running with four to jump as he comes from behind !
At 4 to jump GO AMWELL touched 50s on Betfair and then got as low as 2.31 - profit there for some !

Kelso Friday the 11th January

I am excited , the first race at 12.40 sees the hurdles debut of BEST PROSPECT owned by a really nice guy Davy Neale , this horse travels like an express train and then sometimes disappoints. This is a classy race with the well touted CHARLIE TOKYO, STARTING POINT and the classy future chaser BERWICK LAW in opposition. The long run in at Kelso will be ideal for sitting and wait tactics for this quality hold up performer from the flat, with ground in his favour he is a good bet at double figure odds . The horse must however be laid in running to get out a profit as he will come there swinging on the bridal but might just not find anything !- 3pts win at 11.0 or better with lay for 8 pts at 1.21 in running. RESULT 2nd at 9/1 bet at 14.5 , lay in running matched at 1.31


The More Battle hurdle is a good race with plenty in with chances , the recent runners at Ayr STORYMAKER and FIRST LOOK might both be running too quick but I did think that STORYMAKER might be tempting at a double figure price if looking well in the paddock- I thought he just needed at Ayr and was pulled up and not knocked about. STORYMAKER NON RUNNER


The last race looks a good bumper with TEENAGE KICKS looking like a good horse but I will be looking at an each way bet on the Moffat horse in the same race as he ran a blinder on his debut at Haydock LETS GO GIRLS.
RESULT: LETS GO GIRLS wins 10/1

7 Losing favs at Musselburgh would you believe it !

The packed stands at Musselburgh
applaud Nina Carberry as she legs
it back to the warmth !




7 Losing favs - a layers heaven !!!

Firstly I am gutted , didnt play as I should today with the big desperate ground from the 3 furlong pole to the line at Musselburgh meaning that many horses would not run to form. It was one of those days where I should have taken a barrel load of money away but I bet scared. Four great lays !!! and guess what only made £50 !

race 2 SUALDA was a lay as couldnt go on the ground , 1.78 on the win market and 1.21 on the place . race 3 MODICUM no form on the ground hinderance in the saddle 1.55 in the win market and 1.17 in the place race 4 the big lay FUSHE JO walks like me after a night out , crab like could not go on the ground !!! I got greedy and didnt get my bet matched in running at 1.45 even though 1.55 was matched !!! DIGITAL MEDIA in the place market again didnt get matched , couldnt run a race after its hard race at AYR only 8 days ago on shocking ground. SCALE BANK wasnt a bet at the price and again looked ill at ease on the ground on the way to the post and at 4/6 it was no BET !!!
So instead of winning some good money I won a few pennies ! moral of this story is to bet like you can afford to lose not protect your bank !!! at least the Guru and the Fisherman made a few quid !!

Musselburgh on a Wet Wednesday

A truly uninspiring card at Musselburgh awaits the trusted set of Northern Regulars, at this stage the only bet on paper is SCALE BANK in the Bumper . This well regarded type ran a blinder on his race course introduction at Southwell last year and at odds of 2/1 to 7/2 would be a bet - if it drifts longer than that then its physical condition will be viewed in the paddock. There is one potential lay on the card and that is FUSHE JO in the 2.10 and all will depend on odds and assessment of the opposition. This horse seems to run sideways under pressure and I am not sure that he will be anything but a lay.

SCALE BANK - no bet at the price 4/6 !!!
FUSHE JO - LAY 4/6 Winner

John the Moles Sedgefield Nap

The only bet at the track is GARDASEE in the 2.pm 1pt win
RESULT WON matched at 5.1

Tote Ten to Follow , The Kybermen seek transfer inspiration !

The transfer window is approaching for the Tote Ten to Follow, and The Kybermen have in place a cracking list currently in 134th Place.

The ten horse list includes My Way De Solzen, Vor Por Ustedes, Kauto Star, Denman, Osana, Nickname, Blazing Bailey, Katchit, Lantartique and Tidal Bay covering many races but with the need for some surprises to catch the lists in front. So what will The Kybermen do ? well the thought is that a Grand National horse is needed and potentially a horse to cover the AIG Champion Hurdle Trial but which horses will go ? Do the guys take a chance with taking out My Way Solzen or look at Lantartique as reaching its potential already ? Well by Friday 12th all will be deicded - thinking caps time me thinks !

Alastair The Fishermans Saturday Nap

The first race at Wincanton sees a potential bet in TIMPO of Henry Daly's , at around the 9/2 price win and around 1.98 a place on Betfair the bet is 1 pt win at 5.2 or better and 1 pt place at 1.9 or better. RESULT 4th Traded at 1.61 in running on the win market so profit available.

Alan Shearer asks Lenny about the Newcastle job ?

Alan Shearer went to Ayr races to see his horse Akilak run third, he did well to stay away from Newcastle's St James Park where his beloved Newcastle were beaten by Svens Manchester City.

Wednesday 2nd January

Russell Lands the Spoils !!!

On a grey and damp day Lucinda Russell landed a double via two of her best horses - Quws Law and Master Sebastian and even Alan Shearer turned up !

Quws Law seems destined for better things as he stayed on well to win the 2 mile 4f Novice Hurdle, beating the matched at 1.01 in running favourite Viking Rebel on the line. This seemed a really good novice with all the first three horses home well worth following, Banoge and Quws Law seem set to star over further trips.

Lungo team set for good run
Lenny Lungo and stable jockey Wilson Renwick went home happy as their stable star Wild Cane Ridge bolted up in the 2 m 4f hurdle, making all the top weight seemed to enjoy the front running tactics and the local crowd went wild as he jumped the last to land the odds at 9/2. All of Lungo's horses ran well on the card and future winners seem certain with Villon (also top weight) just being outpointed on his return to the track after three years away by the stongly fancied Master Sebestian, and Delightfully running a nice race in the opening Novice Hurdle.


Horse's to Follow : Villon, Wild Cane Ridge, Quws Law

January 2nd Ayr

Tony on tour 1st day racing in 2008

Very heavy ground at Ayr a fair few lays will decide on track, here are my fancies after studying the races.

Ayr 12.40
Lay - Bayonx - Loser

Ayr 1.10
Kirkside Pleasure Pulled Up

Ayr 1.40
Banoge Max Each way bet at 6/1 + 3rd 8/1 early price
Lay Viking Rebel win and Place 2nd Win Lay Landed at 1.87

Ayr 2.10
Soubriquet Each way bet at 6/1 + 2nd Ran a cracker

Ayr 2.45 No bet

Ayr 3.15
Storymaker No bet too short at 7/4

Ayr 3.45
Doris Gift 3rd

Todays Bets:
Bets: Banoge , Soubriquet
Each way Double

Lays will depend on odds - Bayonx and Viking Rebel to £200

Roughly level on day - no damage done anyway !