Tough day at the office for many punters on day 1 - me included - maybe writing will give some solace !
Firstly - nice neat trick with Binocular , get it ready for one race and one race only aka Granville Again ,all over Again! Secondly - Dunguib is still a good horse - just not as good as the two in front of him ! Novice Chasing next year me thinks
4 mile chase is a right off as a betting medium so second race brings first chance of betting recovery. Peddlers Cross is the nicest horse in the Donald Mccain stable so around 7/1 he must have a great chance. The Coral cup sees Wishful Thinking as a bet at around 12s , stable in form like the horse hugely.
Master Minded should win but wont be surprised to see Big Zeb run a race. The bumper will be won by a smart Irish horse I would think , which one I have no idea !
This new set of races and the flow of the festival is all over the show so the handicaps later in the day are near impossible, I just hope that Bocamix runs well for Andy Crook.
Tuesday 16 March 2010
Friday 12 March 2010
Cheltenham 2010
As Cheltenham rushes forward at pace I have fnally put my mind to looking at the best bets and chances.
Day 1 banker for most people will be DUNGUIB and I just cant oppose the horse, without being ungenuine to the jockey if a Top Jockey was on board then he would be 1 to 2 fav so the nearly evens must be a bet for those with the big betting pockets. The danger will be the Jonjo horse that won the Tote Trophy Get me out of here - but it has to be Dunguib.
The best bet of the week for me is RIVERSIDE THEATRE - I spend my life waiting for bets that stand out and I just cant get my mind away from this horse , he will battle when the other speed horse come off the bridal. I like Somersby in the same race and hopefully these two will battle it out with Geraghty just getting the better of Thornton.
The third bet has to be BENSALEM who has Cheltenham form, needs to improve his jumping but he is class and could be thrown in off 10.11.
The final two horses to look at will be WISHFUL THINKING and PEDDLERS CROSS - I am hoping that they don't run in the same race but fancy them both hugely.
There is value in the big races against the favorites and would think that an each way treble covering COOLDINE, KALAHARI KING and TIDAL BAY will bring fun.
My bet for top jockey is Barry Geraghty - just think that the Ruby express might not have as good a year as last - Ruby and Barry are the best jockey's round Cheltenham and you wont go far wrong following them in every race.
Day 1 banker for most people will be DUNGUIB and I just cant oppose the horse, without being ungenuine to the jockey if a Top Jockey was on board then he would be 1 to 2 fav so the nearly evens must be a bet for those with the big betting pockets. The danger will be the Jonjo horse that won the Tote Trophy Get me out of here - but it has to be Dunguib.
The best bet of the week for me is RIVERSIDE THEATRE - I spend my life waiting for bets that stand out and I just cant get my mind away from this horse , he will battle when the other speed horse come off the bridal. I like Somersby in the same race and hopefully these two will battle it out with Geraghty just getting the better of Thornton.
The third bet has to be BENSALEM who has Cheltenham form, needs to improve his jumping but he is class and could be thrown in off 10.11.
The final two horses to look at will be WISHFUL THINKING and PEDDLERS CROSS - I am hoping that they don't run in the same race but fancy them both hugely.
There is value in the big races against the favorites and would think that an each way treble covering COOLDINE, KALAHARI KING and TIDAL BAY will bring fun.
My bet for top jockey is Barry Geraghty - just think that the Ruby express might not have as good a year as last - Ruby and Barry are the best jockey's round Cheltenham and you wont go far wrong following them in every race.
Saturday 6 March 2010
Cheltenham 2010
As it stands there are likely to be a number of horses that will run that will be under 4/1 starting price - in the last two years there have been 31 horses to start under 4/1 - only 6 have won.
The prices are shortening and my fav rule at Cheltenham is not to get too involved with the under 4/1 horses - around 20% only last two years and that is mainly due to the volume of winners last year.
This year - Dunguib 4/5, Captain Cee Bee 7/2, Garde Champetre 9/4, Quevega 11/8, Rite of Passage 3/1, Long Run 5/2, Master Minded evs, Big Bucks 8/13, Kauto Star 4/5, Roulez Coole 7/2
[b]2009[/b]
The favs under 4/1 had a few winners 5 from 18
Cousin Vinny 9/4 (unp),Binocular 6/4,Lami 7/4,QUEVEGA 2/1
MIKAEL D ARGENT 5/2,COOLDINE 9/4,MASTER MINDED 4/11
Alexander Severus 11/4,Rite of Passage 5/2,Vor Por Ustedes 10/11,Kasbah Bliss 5/4 (unp),Poker di Siviola 7/2 (unp),Daves Dream 7/2 (unp),Pride of Dulcote,KAUTO STAR 7/4,Juveigner 7/2 (unp),Big Eared Fran 7/2,Poquelin 3/1 (unp)
The Ruby show came into town, with Nicholls hitting top form from day 3 - Mullins had a ball and no winners again for Hobbs, Pipe, Powell, Murphy. Top jocks dominated most of the races with very few shocks Walsh had 6, Geraghty 3, Mccoy 1.
[b]2008[/b]
The age and finishing Stats didnt stand up this year with fine performances from Master Minded, Inglis Drever and Katchit defying stats and proving their undoubted talent.
Cheltenhams greatest stat stood up again though !
The Under 4/1 fav losers were out in force:
Kauto Star (evs), Franchoek (11/10), Ashkazar (15/8), Noland (7/4), Sizing Europe (2/1), Wonderkid (5/2), Vor Por ustedes (5/2), The Listener (10/3), Dont Push It (5/2), Zaarito (3/1), Chumba Wumba (10/3), My Petra (3/1)
13 Qualifiers - 12 Losers 4 Unplaced , 1 winner Inglis Drever 11/8 Win
Key Notes:
Bad week at the office for Noel Meade and Philip Hobbs two outstanding trainers had very quiet meetings.
Good week at the office for Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Howard Johnson
The prices are shortening and my fav rule at Cheltenham is not to get too involved with the under 4/1 horses - around 20% only last two years and that is mainly due to the volume of winners last year.
This year - Dunguib 4/5, Captain Cee Bee 7/2, Garde Champetre 9/4, Quevega 11/8, Rite of Passage 3/1, Long Run 5/2, Master Minded evs, Big Bucks 8/13, Kauto Star 4/5, Roulez Coole 7/2
[b]2009[/b]
The favs under 4/1 had a few winners 5 from 18
Cousin Vinny 9/4 (unp),Binocular 6/4,Lami 7/4,QUEVEGA 2/1
MIKAEL D ARGENT 5/2,COOLDINE 9/4,MASTER MINDED 4/11
Alexander Severus 11/4,Rite of Passage 5/2,Vor Por Ustedes 10/11,Kasbah Bliss 5/4 (unp),Poker di Siviola 7/2 (unp),Daves Dream 7/2 (unp),Pride of Dulcote,KAUTO STAR 7/4,Juveigner 7/2 (unp),Big Eared Fran 7/2,Poquelin 3/1 (unp)
The Ruby show came into town, with Nicholls hitting top form from day 3 - Mullins had a ball and no winners again for Hobbs, Pipe, Powell, Murphy. Top jocks dominated most of the races with very few shocks Walsh had 6, Geraghty 3, Mccoy 1.
[b]2008[/b]
The age and finishing Stats didnt stand up this year with fine performances from Master Minded, Inglis Drever and Katchit defying stats and proving their undoubted talent.
Cheltenhams greatest stat stood up again though !
The Under 4/1 fav losers were out in force:
Kauto Star (evs), Franchoek (11/10), Ashkazar (15/8), Noland (7/4), Sizing Europe (2/1), Wonderkid (5/2), Vor Por ustedes (5/2), The Listener (10/3), Dont Push It (5/2), Zaarito (3/1), Chumba Wumba (10/3), My Petra (3/1)
13 Qualifiers - 12 Losers 4 Unplaced , 1 winner Inglis Drever 11/8 Win
Key Notes:
Bad week at the office for Noel Meade and Philip Hobbs two outstanding trainers had very quiet meetings.
Good week at the office for Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Howard Johnson
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