Thursday 31 January 2008

The Ad Mans Northern horses to follow

I am enjoying the racing at the moment, and cannot wait for the northern swing to get going - jumps meetings full of northern horses with some hand picked gambles ready to pluck the funds from fellow Betfair punters! I have seen many horses in the last 6 months in the flesh and these are the impressive horses to follow.

Howard Johnson has assembled a fantastic team and the big three to follow from his stable are :
Tidal Bay, Kealshore Boy and Striking Ambition - all three will win top class races and have already proved that if you can afford the purchase price sometimes you will buy class acts.

Lenny Lungo has had a very quiet year and I would expect a few fire works as the year goes on, I fully expect the classy Berwick Law to win a good handicap, All Out For Seven a bumper and I expect Wild Cane Ridge to win a really good handicap.

Peter Monteith is having a fantastic year and the class of horse at Whitebog Farm is the best yet. Sinatas will win a handicap over 2m 4f , Quiciyo is potentially the best horse in the yard and the talented Los Nadis will continue to win races. Of the David Johnson horses there is a huge belief in the yard that Standin Obligation is an ideal type for the Scottish National.

Lucinda Russell and Peter Scudamore have been seen at most northern meetings and I have no doubt that the "Scu" influence is bringing better horses and more staying power - Quws Law is the horse to watch .

I have been a bit surprised with the Nicky Richards team this year, maybe its the Rose Davidson influence or the wind down of Tony Dobbin but I feel like they are under achieving. They have some big owners and of the stars According to John, Turpins Green and Monets Garden have all shown semblance of their obvious huge talent this year. I cannot however give a horse that has taken my breath away, with only Money Trix (and I didnt see that in the flesh ) and Viking Rebel staying in my focus.

It is the first year I haven't owned a horse for about 7 years and my old stable Micky Hammond has a mixed set of horses, some are very slow (Micky is very good at picking races for them) but there is a good mix of ex Flat horses and some nice ex Tom Costello horses like La Pantera Rosa and Four Franks. I have two real dark horse's though Desert Rat - will win a handicap and I fully expect Swains Bridge to win a seller before the year end.

I have seen two quality bumper horses this year in the North, Katapult of Alan Swinbank's and the lovely mare of Dudley Moffat's Lets Go Girls.

February Stats and Trainers to back/avoid !

I love February for racing as the big stables start preparing for the two big festivals. This leads to certain horses from certain stables running with similar consistency, year after year. I have listed my own stats on certain stables and races to avoid in February.

STABLES to BACK :
N Henderson
T Easterby
T George

Ones to back by race :
N Henderson , P Webber and V Williams NOVICE CHASERS
P Webber, R Guest HCAP CHASERS

Ones to avoid:
C Mann - Nov Hcap Chasers

Tuesday 29 January 2008

Welcome to the Northern Swing


Well it is finally here the Northern Swing as I call it with racing in the north on numerous days to visit - with the weather the way it is you just never know when though !





30th Jan - Newcastle
, 1st Feb - Catterick, 2nd Feb -Doncaster and Wetherby, 3rd Feb - Musselburgh ***, 4th Feb - Hexham ***, 5th Feb - Sedgefield, 6th Feb - Carlisle, 9th Feb - Ayr ***, 11th Feb -Wetherby, 12th Feb - Newcastle, 13th Feb - Musselburgh, *** 14th Feb - Kelso ***, 18th Feb -Carlisle, 19th Feb - Sedgefield, 21st Feb - Ayr,23rd Feb - Newcastle.

Now the trick is always to take a profit so we will see how the month goes with a little help from The Fisherman, The Guru and the Race Watcher ! Good luck to all the Inside the Stable track team ! and of course the 6 or 7 horses that are now handicapped !!!
*** - will be venturing forth- rain and god willing !

Friday 25 January 2008

Saturday 26th January

THE AD MAN has a Saturday shocker !!!

A competitive days racing at two of the best jump courses in the UK , what more could you ask for on a Saturday ! The best value on the Cheltenham card is the improving FAASEL in the 2.40, his form behind Tamarinbleu gives him a huge chance at around 16/1 2pts win 4 pts place if all eight run. RESULT : Faasel never travelled an inch and the horse that was pulled up in the Tamarinbleu race won the race , the ground can be the only problem as he was backed from 25s to 12s !

The highly impressive LUXURIX needs to win this to go on to the TOTE GOLD TROPHY and will carry a good investment at around 4/1 - 3pts win RESULT: Jumped well but didnt finish his race .
Over at Doncaster with the wind drying out the course a small bet on the well weighted ITS MOON at around 20/1 will be had in the 1.20 , with a follow up win and place bet on the classy STANDIN OBLIGATION who is working very well at home and seems back to his early form for David Pipe. RESULT : Hated the track and ran accordingly !
The best bet of the day and a near maximum investment is THEATRE GIRL 6 pts win in the 1.55 who ran the hugely impressive KHYBER KIM to 3 lengths last time , the best form in the race and is not even favorite ! RESULT: Theatre Girl was just outpointed by Chumba Wumba , better jockey won the race.
Remember the key on the value bets is to trade in running to lock in profit !


THE GURU Cracks a Double !!!
JP McManus can complete a short price double at Prestbury Park with AIGLE D'OR(1.00) WON 7/4 and FRANCHOEK(3.15) WON 11/8. I hope Freddie Williams has taken his deep satchel with him.
PADDOCK POINTER - On his only defeat at Prestbury Park FRANCHOEK constantly swished his tail in the pre parade and paddock.

Thursday 24 January 2008

The Bridal Horse double...........................! Friday 25th January


Two divisions of a novice hurdle and two of my favorite back to lay horses are short priced market leaders. In BLUE BAJAN (LEFT) 12.50 we have a horse that is top class with a top pilot - will I be playing at 8/11 ? - probably not !!! He will win and even I cant put up a lay even at 1.21 ! Sneek the 20s in the TOTE TROPHY before the race though. The second division sees the enigmatic BEST PROSPECT return to the
track , at around 13/8 he is not a win bet ! Is there anything that can beat him ?or at least take him on inside the final furlong when he will pull up in front ? I am not sure but there will be a lay bet in running - as he will stop !!! it might just be after the line though !!!

The 3.05 was a really good race, one to watch again and get your notebook out ROSBAY, HI NOD, AUREATE, AYPEEYES, KENTUCKY BOY(NOT knocked about HCAP MARK), SONGE(WINS WELL), QUICK WILL (MUSSELBURGH TYPE) , GALLANT NUIT (NICE EFFORT STAYING ON FROM THE REAR) will all be worth watching.

3 pt win TOTE GOLD TROPHY - BLUE BAJAN 20/1
RESULT: Wins easily and is now 12/1 for TOTE TROPHY

Lay in running 5pts at 1.31 BEST PROSPECT
RESULT:Not matched



Tuesday 22 January 2008

Musselburgh 23rd January

At last some racing up north , and I would imagine a potential day of shocks on ground that will be at worst very slow !!! The racing is the usual fair with typical handcaps mixed with a couple of useful novice hurdles.

The best race to view is the 2.30 with some really useful horses running with many intentions!
ALONG THE NILE is the top weight with a double penalty, and this horse has plenty of class and could still be on the improve his welterweight of 12.4 must however stop him against some useful flat performers - the most noted is a lovely horse called KERRIMUIR LASS with Mick Fitzgerald booked on a rare visit to Musselburgh. This horse runs well from the front and has schooled well and would be a bet if looking well at something like 7 or 8 to 1. Others to note would be Veiled Applause, Compromizenotension and the useful Halla San.
Result - HALLA SAN won the race and looked very well in the paddock and was well backed, Kerrimuir Lass was in need of the run and drifted out to 12s on Betfair it was no Bet.



The favourite backers will be out in force in the first race (1.00) with a likely short price in IM DELILAH a horse that was running ok at Kelso when coming down , I think there will be something to beat her and I like the look of LA VECHIA SCHIOLA who gets the 4 yr old allowance - she beat the very useful Mr Crystal at Catterick. She was well beaten last time after a huge mistake at the second , Scottish owned and cost a few bob after her Catterick win she will be tough to beat.
Im Delilah drifted like a barge and LA VECHIA SCHIOLA ran quite well to be 3rd at around 8/1 - losing her race on the bend.


The 1.30 is only just better than a seller and I expect the favourite to run well PERTEMPS NETWORK (WON 6/4)who wasnt knocked about last time. The 2.00 is a typical handicap and I wont be playing, but I will be entertained all day by the lovely guys and girls of RADIO FORTH who sponsor the race -so I hope the rain stays off for the paddock view and best turned out award !

The 3.00 and 3.30 are again tough handicaps , I will take a look in the paddock and maybe find a back or lay . The bumper will be a good watch and I believe that there are a few very nice horses SPELL CHECKER, WIPE YOUR EYE and NEW DANCER but two at huge prices will be HONEST MAN (Looked well and ran a blinder in 6th) and OVER THE BORDER ( LOOKED POOR) a paddock inspection will tell me what I need to know.

Not a betting card for me , I will enjoy my day out and keep my stakes low.
BET - 1pt win KERRIMUIR LASS at 7.0 or better with a view to lay to take a profit RESULT NO BET AS NEEDED THE RUN.
BET - 1 pt win LA VEICHIA SCHIOLA at 4.5 or better. RESULT 3rd at Each WAY Price

Saturday 19 January 2008

Saturday Nap

THE RACE READER
Todays best bet is BINOCULAR 12.35 Ascot 2pts win - Hendersons Triumph Hurdle Horse
RESULT WON 6/4 - Doing handstands - 25/1 to 8/1 for Triumph Hurdle

THE AD MAN
Small each way on PENZANCE 1.10 Ascot 0.5 pts e/w
RESULT Pulled Up

Tuesday 15 January 2008

It is a quiet week for going racing !

Not a lot on this week with the only northern meeting being at Newcastle on Wednesday , and alas some of us have to work ! The next couple of weeks will be quiet before a busy spell up north, with all the cancelled meetings perhaps the BHB will put a few extra meetings on - I doubt it mind !

Saturday 12 January 2008

John the Moles Saturday Nap

2pt win 2 pt Place
1.45 Kempton

Get on the General Lee - GO AMWELL RESULT 4th (The fate of all good each ways)
Back in the place market pre race then in running with four to jump as he comes from behind !
At 4 to jump GO AMWELL touched 50s on Betfair and then got as low as 2.31 - profit there for some !

Friday 11 January 2008

Kelso Friday the 11th January

I am excited , the first race at 12.40 sees the hurdles debut of BEST PROSPECT owned by a really nice guy Davy Neale , this horse travels like an express train and then sometimes disappoints. This is a classy race with the well touted CHARLIE TOKYO, STARTING POINT and the classy future chaser BERWICK LAW in opposition. The long run in at Kelso will be ideal for sitting and wait tactics for this quality hold up performer from the flat, with ground in his favour he is a good bet at double figure odds . The horse must however be laid in running to get out a profit as he will come there swinging on the bridal but might just not find anything !- 3pts win at 11.0 or better with lay for 8 pts at 1.21 in running. RESULT 2nd at 9/1 bet at 14.5 , lay in running matched at 1.31


The More Battle hurdle is a good race with plenty in with chances , the recent runners at Ayr STORYMAKER and FIRST LOOK might both be running too quick but I did think that STORYMAKER might be tempting at a double figure price if looking well in the paddock- I thought he just needed at Ayr and was pulled up and not knocked about. STORYMAKER NON RUNNER


The last race looks a good bumper with TEENAGE KICKS looking like a good horse but I will be looking at an each way bet on the Moffat horse in the same race as he ran a blinder on his debut at Haydock LETS GO GIRLS.
RESULT: LETS GO GIRLS wins 10/1





Wednesday 9 January 2008

7 Losing favs at Musselburgh would you believe it !




The packed stands at Musselburgh
applaud Nina Carberry as she legs
it back to the warmth !




7 Losing favs - a layers heaven !!!


Firstly I am gutted , didnt play as I should today with the big desperate ground from the 3 furlong pole to the line at Musselburgh meaning that many horses would not run to form. It was one of those days where I should have taken a barrel load of money away but I bet scared. Four great lays !!! and guess what only made £50 !

race 2 SUALDA was a lay as couldnt go on the ground , 1.78 on the win market and 1.21 on the place . race 3 MODICUM no form on the ground hinderance in the saddle 1.55 in the win market and 1.17 in the place race 4 the big lay FUSHE JO walks like me after a night out , crab like could not go on the ground !!! I got greedy and didnt get my bet matched in running at 1.45 even though 1.55 was matched !!! DIGITAL MEDIA in the place market again didnt get matched , couldnt run a race after its hard race at AYR only 8 days ago on shocking ground. SCALE BANK wasnt a bet at the price and again looked ill at ease on the ground on the way to the post and at 4/6 it was no BET !!!
So instead of winning some good money I won a few pennies ! moral of this story is to bet like you can afford to lose not protect your bank !!! at least the Guru and the Fisherman made a few quid !!

Tuesday 8 January 2008

Musselburgh on a Wet Wednesday

A truly uninspiring card at Musselburgh awaits the trusted set of Northern Regulars, at this stage the only bet on paper is SCALE BANK in the Bumper . This well regarded type ran a blinder on his race course introduction at Southwell last year and at odds of 2/1 to 7/2 would be a bet - if it drifts longer than that then its physical condition will be viewed in the paddock. There is one potential lay on the card and that is FUSHE JO in the 2.10 and all will depend on odds and assessment of the opposition. This horse seems to run sideways under pressure and I am not sure that he will be anything but a lay.

SCALE BANK - no bet at the price 4/6 !!!
FUSHE JO - LAY 4/6 Winner

John the Moles Sedgefield Nap

The only bet at the track is GARDASEE in the 2.pm 1pt win
RESULT WON matched at 5.1

Saturday 5 January 2008

Tote Ten to Follow , The Kybermen seek transfer inspiration !


The transfer window is approaching for the Tote Ten to Follow, and The Kybermen have in place a cracking list currently in 134th Place.

The ten horse list includes My Way De Solzen, Vor Por Ustedes, Kauto Star, Denman, Osana, Nickname, Blazing Bailey, Katchit, Lantartique and Tidal Bay covering many races but with the need for some surprises to catch the lists in front. So what will The Kybermen do ? well the thought is that a Grand National horse is needed and potentially a horse to cover the AIG Champion Hurdle Trial but which horses will go ? Do the guys take a chance with taking out My Way Solzen or look at Lantartique as reaching its potential already ? Well by Friday 12th all will be deicded - thinking caps time me thinks !

Alastair The Fishermans Saturday Nap

The first race at Wincanton sees a potential bet in TIMPO of Henry Daly's , at around the 9/2 price win and around 1.98 a place on Betfair the bet is 1 pt win at 5.2 or better and 1 pt place at 1.9 or better. RESULT 4th Traded at 1.61 in running on the win market so profit available.

Wednesday 2 January 2008

Alan Shearer asks Lenny about the Newcastle job ?


Alan Shearer went to Ayr races to see his horse Akilak run third, he did well to stay away from Newcastle's St James Park where his beloved Newcastle were beaten by Svens Manchester City.

Wednesday 2nd January


Russell Lands the Spoils !!!

On a grey and damp day Lucinda Russell landed a double via two of her best horses - Quws Law and Master Sebastian and even Alan Shearer turned up !

Quws Law seems destined for better things as he stayed on well to win the 2 mile 4f Novice Hurdle, beating the matched at 1.01 in running favourite Viking Rebel on the line. This seemed a really good novice with all the first three horses home well worth following, Banoge and Quws Law seem set to star over further trips.

Lungo team set for good run
Lenny Lungo and stable jockey Wilson Renwick went home happy as their stable star Wild Cane Ridge bolted up in the 2 m 4f hurdle, making all the top weight seemed to enjoy the front running tactics and the local crowd went wild as he jumped the last to land the odds at 9/2. All of Lungo's horses ran well on the card and future winners seem certain with Villon (also top weight) just being outpointed on his return to the track after three years away by the stongly fancied Master Sebestian, and Delightfully running a nice race in the opening Novice Hurdle.


Horse's to Follow : Villon, Wild Cane Ridge, Quws Law



Tuesday 1 January 2008

January 2nd Ayr

Tony on tour 1st day racing in 2008

Very heavy ground at Ayr a fair few lays will decide on track, here are my fancies after studying the races.

Ayr 12.40
Lay - Bayonx - Loser

Ayr 1.10
Kirkside Pleasure Pulled Up

Ayr 1.40
Banoge Max Each way bet at 6/1 + 3rd 8/1 early price
Lay Viking Rebel win and Place 2nd Win Lay Landed at 1.87

Ayr 2.10
Soubriquet Each way bet at 6/1 + 2nd Ran a cracker

Ayr 2.45 No bet

Ayr 3.15
Storymaker No bet too short at 7/4

Ayr 3.45
Doris Gift 3rd

Todays Bets:
Bets: Banoge , Soubriquet
Each way Double

Lays will depend on odds - Bayonx and Viking Rebel to £200

Roughly level on day - no damage done anyway !