Another year over - been battered by the bookies and my inability to get enough goals in my off Cheltenham bets !
1) Big Bucks
What a race and what a talent - best NH horse ever ? Could be - he just does not get Beat and how Voler La Vadette tried - what a ride what a race !
ENJOY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wloWIFTwEg
2) Riverside Theatre
Ride of the week for me - great ride by a top jockey and some guts from the horse. Real shame that this was not the year before where his injury and missed festival probably cost me a place in the top ten of the Tote ten to follow.
3) The Irish
They just never seemed bullish - every day they put up horses trained by non Irish trainers as bankers - it was all rather strange - Boston Bob aside and Sir Des Champs they just did not rate their horses as highly as normal.
Horses to Follow to Aintree and beyond
Sprinter Sacre - Machine and will win many races as will the second in the Arkle - Cue Card
Bad and weak Champion Hurdle and Queen Mother chases
HuntBall - still well handicapped and will keep winning through handicap company - White Star Line will win lots of races
Four Commanders - Jumps like a buck - not very quick could win a National on soft
Simonsig - very good horse and worth watching Close House over 3 miles
Irish Novice Hurdlers - are weaker than normal
Grand Crus - looked narrow at the start - don't think he gets the trip either - Bobs Worth won well - best of the Irish Last Instalment is a better horse
Kazlian - went too fast on the front - great chance going forward
Moscow Mannon - caught out for experience and track - still think he is the best Irish bumper horse
Sir Des Champs - Gold Cup Horse
Champion Court - ideal horse for early season handicaps at Cheltenham next year
Riverside Theatre - great horse - King George type
Glam Gerry - watch for this horse when the money is down
BecauseIcouldntsee - jumps fantastic - could be a Scottish national horse
Synchronised and The Giant Bolster - Both serious horses
Oiseau di Nuit - very unlucky - travelling like a winner when brought down
and my dark dark horse for next year The Druid Nephew
Under 4/1 fav rule
The Under 4/1 Fav rule had the following qualifiers across the 4 days
Sprinter Sacre - Won
Hurricane Fly - Lost
ScotsIrish - Lost
Quevega - Won
Simonsig - Won
Grand Crus - Lost
Sizing Europe - Lost
Vendor - Lost
Sir De Champs - Won
Riverside Theatre - Won
Big bucks - Won
Boston Bob - Lost
Long Run - Lost
Chapoturgeon - Lost
Kid Cassidy - Lost
6 Winners
9 Losers
Last 5 years -
64 Losers
18 Winners - (Quevega x4 Big Bucks x4)
Monday 19 March 2012
Friday 16 March 2012
BET365 Lose a million - but are happy with the recovered losses from A P Harding esq
A stable lad belonging to the Nicky Henderson stable has won around £1million in an accumulator bet on five of the yard's runners at the Cheltenham Festival this week, it was reported on Thursday night.
The bet was reported to be have been placed with bet365 late last year, when the odds would have been much bigger, and featured Sprinter Sacre on Tuesday, Simonsig, Finian's Rainbow and Bobs Worth on Wednesday, and Riverside Theatre on Thursday afternoon.
Pat Cooney, spokesman for the firm, was quoted on the Guardian's website as saying: "We're pleased for all our customers who've had a winning day today but we don't discuss individual accounts.
"This one particular customer's had an extremely good time of it."
The BBC's Claire Balding tweeted: "The lad who looks after Finian's Rainbow had a five-timer on Nicky Henderson winners and has won £1million! Says he'll still be at work tomorrow."
On Wednesday, Henderson overtook the late Fulke Walwyn as the most successful trainer at the Festival. He saddles Gold Cup favourite Long Run on Friday.
The trainer told the Daily Mail: "I've just heard about it - it's absolutely wonderful. He's such a lovely lad, one of the nicest you could ever meet.
"He's my top guy and I am absolutely thrilled about it.''
The bet was reported to be have been placed with bet365 late last year, when the odds would have been much bigger, and featured Sprinter Sacre on Tuesday, Simonsig, Finian's Rainbow and Bobs Worth on Wednesday, and Riverside Theatre on Thursday afternoon.
Pat Cooney, spokesman for the firm, was quoted on the Guardian's website as saying: "We're pleased for all our customers who've had a winning day today but we don't discuss individual accounts.
"This one particular customer's had an extremely good time of it."
The BBC's Claire Balding tweeted: "The lad who looks after Finian's Rainbow had a five-timer on Nicky Henderson winners and has won £1million! Says he'll still be at work tomorrow."
On Wednesday, Henderson overtook the late Fulke Walwyn as the most successful trainer at the Festival. He saddles Gold Cup favourite Long Run on Friday.
The trainer told the Daily Mail: "I've just heard about it - it's absolutely wonderful. He's such a lovely lad, one of the nicest you could ever meet.
"He's my top guy and I am absolutely thrilled about it.''
Under 4/1 fav rule
The Under 4/1 Fav rule had the following qualifiers from the first two days
Sprinter Sacre - Won
Hurricane Fly - Lost
ScotsIrish - Lost
Quevega - Won
Simonsig - Won
Grand Crus - Lost
Sizing Europe - Lost
Vendor - Lost
Sir De Champs - Won
Riverside Theatre - Won
Big bucks - Won
6 Winners
5 Losers
Last 5 years -
60 Losers
18 Winners - (Quevega x4 Big Bucks x4)
Sprinter Sacre - Won
Hurricane Fly - Lost
ScotsIrish - Lost
Quevega - Won
Simonsig - Won
Grand Crus - Lost
Sizing Europe - Lost
Vendor - Lost
Sir De Champs - Won
Riverside Theatre - Won
Big bucks - Won
6 Winners
5 Losers
Last 5 years -
60 Losers
18 Winners - (Quevega x4 Big Bucks x4)
Day 4
The losing blog !!!
Never mind, been a good few days of locking horns but sadly I need to do a ZULU DAWN type defence on Day 4- HOOKY put that bottle down!!!
Oiseau Di Nuit again , Synchronised maybe and a little bit of Citizenship ....
to the bookies...
"Dont you throw that bloody spear at me"
Never mind, been a good few days of locking horns but sadly I need to do a ZULU DAWN type defence on Day 4- HOOKY put that bottle down!!!
Oiseau Di Nuit again , Synchronised maybe and a little bit of Citizenship ....
to the bookies...
"Dont you throw that bloody spear at me"
Thursday 15 March 2012
BIG Bucks
They came he conquered - anyone know where the Poorhouse is ?
Funny sometimes you lose and your happy - what a racehorse . FULL STOP!
Funny sometimes you lose and your happy - what a racehorse . FULL STOP!
DAY 3
When you look through a card and see that CRUNCHED might be the best bet in the charity race it could be a long day !!! My big theory today is that BIG BUCKS will get beat today - just a gut feel that he has plenty on his plate and that at 9 he might just have plenty on with Thousand Stars, Oscar Whiskey and So Young we will see.
ROSALIE at Hexham 1.45 has been battered from 7s to 3s - worth taking the hint.
ROSALIE at Hexham 1.45 has been battered from 7s to 3s - worth taking the hint.
Wednesday 14 March 2012
Day 3 and bits
Another choppy water day with my only winning bet being the laying of Grand Crus who looked terrible at the start and ran like he didnt get the trip.
A very poor Queen Mother chase for both quality and numbers saw a new winner in Finians Rainbow.
The Under 4/1 Fav rule had the following qualifiers from the first two days
Sprinter Sacre - Won
Hurricane Fly - Lost
ScotsIrish - Lost
Quevega - Won
Simonsig - Won
Grand Crus - Lost
Sizing Europe - Lost
Vendor - Lost
3 Winners
5 Losers
Last 5 years -
60 Losers
15 Winners - (Quevega x4 Big Bucks x3)
DAY 3
Peddlers Cross 1.30
e/w Michael Flips
Barwell Bridge 2.05
NB Our Father
Rubi Light 2.40
Betting without Big Bucks
So Young e/w 3.20
Matuhi e/w 4.00
BecauseIcouldntsee 4.40
Due a change of luck with three of my big bets running blinders last two days - time to find a winner !
PS BORIS THE BLADE,SAM PATCH and ROSAIRLIE at Hexham
A very poor Queen Mother chase for both quality and numbers saw a new winner in Finians Rainbow.
The Under 4/1 Fav rule had the following qualifiers from the first two days
Sprinter Sacre - Won
Hurricane Fly - Lost
ScotsIrish - Lost
Quevega - Won
Simonsig - Won
Grand Crus - Lost
Sizing Europe - Lost
Vendor - Lost
3 Winners
5 Losers
Last 5 years -
60 Losers
15 Winners - (Quevega x4 Big Bucks x3)
DAY 3
Peddlers Cross 1.30
e/w Michael Flips
Barwell Bridge 2.05
NB Our Father
Rubi Light 2.40
Betting without Big Bucks
So Young e/w 3.20
Matuhi e/w 4.00
BecauseIcouldntsee 4.40
Due a change of luck with three of my big bets running blinders last two days - time to find a winner !
PS BORIS THE BLADE,SAM PATCH and ROSAIRLIE at Hexham
Tuesday 13 March 2012
DAY 2 - Cheltenham Festival 2012
Don,t give up your day job !!!
Who said that? - onto day 2 !
1.30
4 Mile chase for novices - not a race I have done well in the past but I do like Universal Soldier at around 12/1 with Four Commanders being the saver
2.05
No bet from me - think the novice divisions are really tough this year as such but will give a shortlist if you must !
SOUS LES CIEUX
MONKSLAND
COTTON MILL
2.40
The RSA is a tough race but I do fancy one in this FIRST LIEUTENANT who beat the Champion Hurdle winner Rock on Ruby last year - I think he has been laid out for this race, has festival form and jumps better than Bobs Worth (remember Punchestown ?)
3.20
Queen Mother is a weak race for status and entrants - think that Sizing Europe will retain his crown
4.00
One of my favourite races and one I have backed the winner a few times - really do think that past course form and race form is imperative as will quick ground form.
This leaves me a short list of
Carlito Brigante
Act of Kalanisi
Spirit River
Shoracres
First Fandango
Will seek out prices am to see which one I end up backing !
4.40
Vendor will take some beating after being laid out however at a massive price I will be backing CHILL in first time blinkers and Argocat.
The Bumper
Like both Moscow Mannion and Royal Guardsman - jockeys will have a huge say in the outcome of the race !!!
Who said that? - onto day 2 !
1.30
4 Mile chase for novices - not a race I have done well in the past but I do like Universal Soldier at around 12/1 with Four Commanders being the saver
2.05
No bet from me - think the novice divisions are really tough this year as such but will give a shortlist if you must !
SOUS LES CIEUX
MONKSLAND
COTTON MILL
2.40
The RSA is a tough race but I do fancy one in this FIRST LIEUTENANT who beat the Champion Hurdle winner Rock on Ruby last year - I think he has been laid out for this race, has festival form and jumps better than Bobs Worth (remember Punchestown ?)
3.20
Queen Mother is a weak race for status and entrants - think that Sizing Europe will retain his crown
4.00
One of my favourite races and one I have backed the winner a few times - really do think that past course form and race form is imperative as will quick ground form.
This leaves me a short list of
Carlito Brigante
Act of Kalanisi
Spirit River
Shoracres
First Fandango
Will seek out prices am to see which one I end up backing !
4.40
Vendor will take some beating after being laid out however at a massive price I will be backing CHILL in first time blinkers and Argocat.
The Bumper
Like both Moscow Mannion and Royal Guardsman - jockeys will have a huge say in the outcome of the race !!!
HUNTBALL
Now that is what you call a performance - rated 69 now rated 155 + sadly he beat WHITE STAR LINE into second - not quite the Titanic but not really a day where I got hugely close.
Interesting how quite the Irish have been - is the ground too quick? Quevega aside they havent really had too many horses involved.
Day 2 will be up later ....
Interesting how quite the Irish have been - is the ground too quick? Quevega aside they havent really had too many horses involved.
Day 2 will be up later ....
Day 1 Summary
Not a great day at all for many - Sprinter Sacre aside some very interesting results on very quick ground for first day of Cheltenham- racing near the front was key to running well for many of the placed horses.
The Under 4/1 Fav rule had the following qualifiers
Sprinter Sacre - Won
Hurricane Fly - Lost
ScotsIrish - Lost
Quevega - Won
Hurricane Flyer just was not good enough on the day but the golden note for teh rest of the festival is you need to be up with the pace or over 2 miles they will get away from you ! Shame as the 5/1 treble was a huge price !!
Both the handicaps ran to the stats - just picked the wrong ones !!!
The Under 4/1 Fav rule had the following qualifiers
Sprinter Sacre - Won
Hurricane Fly - Lost
ScotsIrish - Lost
Quevega - Won
Hurricane Flyer just was not good enough on the day but the golden note for teh rest of the festival is you need to be up with the pace or over 2 miles they will get away from you ! Shame as the 5/1 treble was a huge price !!
Both the handicaps ran to the stats - just picked the wrong ones !!!
Handicaps DAY 1
Had a great look through the two handicaps and stats and interesting what the conclusions are !
2.40
No winner has defied a handicap mark of 150+ for 29 years which rules out so many of the horses that you actually have a chance of getting the field down in size.
I really like two horses at prices, now the first Baile Anrai fell last time, you know the stats on that ! However his eye catching run last time is spot on for a handicap and at 14s is hell of a good price. I can give Tullamore Dew a chance but the safer goes on Magnaminity at 16s.
5.40
My thinking hat is on this race and one of my favourite stats races - Five of the last six winners were rated 132-135 which is exactly the bottom half of the weights from White Star Line downwards - nothingelse on stats can win the race.
Not knocked about with top class Novice form in Ireland - White Star Line is a sound 14/1 shot and will be a really good bet. The saver goes on Ackertac who sits in the stats range, and Vino Griego must have a chance - both are thinkers !
2.40
No winner has defied a handicap mark of 150+ for 29 years which rules out so many of the horses that you actually have a chance of getting the field down in size.
I really like two horses at prices, now the first Baile Anrai fell last time, you know the stats on that ! However his eye catching run last time is spot on for a handicap and at 14s is hell of a good price. I can give Tullamore Dew a chance but the safer goes on Magnaminity at 16s.
5.40
My thinking hat is on this race and one of my favourite stats races - Five of the last six winners were rated 132-135 which is exactly the bottom half of the weights from White Star Line downwards - nothingelse on stats can win the race.
Not knocked about with top class Novice form in Ireland - White Star Line is a sound 14/1 shot and will be a really good bet. The saver goes on Ackertac who sits in the stats range, and Vino Griego must have a chance - both are thinkers !
Monday 12 March 2012
STATS
Just got a feeling with the smaller fields that the stats might get blown apart this year - I just wonder if all the good things can win ?
Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly and Quevega 9/2 the treble ......
Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly and Quevega 9/2 the treble ......
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DAY 1 - Cheltenham Festival 2012
Done my studying of the first day and really interesting to see the mix of odds on shots with the handicappers.
1.30
A race for the Irish often and the change in ground towards good should in theory favour the flat racers rather than the NH horses. last year Al Ferof out stayed Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card up the hill - so will this happen again?
I just have a feeling that the flat horses will turn the tables this year as there are some classy types.
You cant back horses that fell last time out at the festival the stats are terrible so that rules out the likely favourite Darlan , and I cant see Cinders and Ashes being good enough despite the hype from a few of my pals. Montbazon took my eye but at the price if that form line is to believed then I think Vulcanite who made the running last time and will love the big field is the horse I would rather be with each way - Paddy Brennan loves him and says he has real gears. But the best bet in the race is Gallileos Choice who is really useful from the flat and is just preferred to The Midnight Game
Tough Race
Selection: Gallileos Choice
NB Vulcanite e/w
Alternate: Midnight Game
2.05 The Arkle
Not seen a horse like Sprinter Sacre for a while but having just watched the race from last year where Sprinter Sacre set sail for home two out with Cue Card only to be outstayed by Al Ferof has given me some doubts.
Cue Card I think is the best jumper in the race, Sprinter Sacre is the best horse, Menorah was the best hurdler.
Sprinter Sacre is the bet if you can get Evens and I think that Menorah will run a blinder.
3.20
Hurricane Fly will win - superb horse and weak field
Second will be a shoot out but Hurricane is a really good horse.
Cross Country race - is not for me so small each way out of sentiment on GONE TO LUNCH at 50/1 is the bet.
The Mares race at 4.40 sees Quevega looking to win again she is a machine and at 1/2 will probably win easily.
Handicaps will follow tomorrow.
1.30
A race for the Irish often and the change in ground towards good should in theory favour the flat racers rather than the NH horses. last year Al Ferof out stayed Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card up the hill - so will this happen again?
I just have a feeling that the flat horses will turn the tables this year as there are some classy types.
You cant back horses that fell last time out at the festival the stats are terrible so that rules out the likely favourite Darlan , and I cant see Cinders and Ashes being good enough despite the hype from a few of my pals. Montbazon took my eye but at the price if that form line is to believed then I think Vulcanite who made the running last time and will love the big field is the horse I would rather be with each way - Paddy Brennan loves him and says he has real gears. But the best bet in the race is Gallileos Choice who is really useful from the flat and is just preferred to The Midnight Game
Tough Race
Selection: Gallileos Choice
NB Vulcanite e/w
Alternate: Midnight Game
2.05 The Arkle
Not seen a horse like Sprinter Sacre for a while but having just watched the race from last year where Sprinter Sacre set sail for home two out with Cue Card only to be outstayed by Al Ferof has given me some doubts.
Cue Card I think is the best jumper in the race, Sprinter Sacre is the best horse, Menorah was the best hurdler.
Sprinter Sacre is the bet if you can get Evens and I think that Menorah will run a blinder.
3.20
Hurricane Fly will win - superb horse and weak field
Second will be a shoot out but Hurricane is a really good horse.
Cross Country race - is not for me so small each way out of sentiment on GONE TO LUNCH at 50/1 is the bet.
The Mares race at 4.40 sees Quevega looking to win again she is a machine and at 1/2 will probably win easily.
Handicaps will follow tomorrow.
Sunday 11 March 2012
POST Cheltenham Blues or Tremedous Fun !
Well here we are another year on, still here which is the main thing !!! Never found the pre Cheltenham period too exciting but this year I can't wait for Cheltenham !
I have all the tools the Weatherbys guide, Weekender, access to Evenings of Cheltenham previews, Bet Trends and the brilliant BET365 website that shows you the last race of everything that runs !
The Good things .....
DAY 1:
Sprinter Sacre - Arkle - like the horse a lot - but very very short 4/6 ish - think it will win though so throw in with Hurricane Fly 10/11 and your first double is up!
Not that simple though is it !!!
Leaving Quevega alone - just got a feeling that if Unaccompanied turns up she will get beat.
Cross Country - Gone to Lunch makes his debut - probably out of Sympathy sorry Eternal optimism he might just like it !
Day 1 - Race 1
Positive word for Montbazon, Vulcanite and Gallileos Choice
Will leave the handicaps until dec time.
Just for the record had a blinding Sunday watching men run around chasing an odd shaped ball round, backed the first try scorer at 14s and had score cast at 75-1 - unusual way to get some Cheltenham money together - with my knowledge of Rugby Union very poor it was very lucky!!! Man Utd went top .....If Carlsberg did Sundays .......
I have all the tools the Weatherbys guide, Weekender, access to Evenings of Cheltenham previews, Bet Trends and the brilliant BET365 website that shows you the last race of everything that runs !
The Good things .....
DAY 1:
Sprinter Sacre - Arkle - like the horse a lot - but very very short 4/6 ish - think it will win though so throw in with Hurricane Fly 10/11 and your first double is up!
Not that simple though is it !!!
Leaving Quevega alone - just got a feeling that if Unaccompanied turns up she will get beat.
Cross Country - Gone to Lunch makes his debut - probably out of Sympathy sorry Eternal optimism he might just like it !
Day 1 - Race 1
Positive word for Montbazon, Vulcanite and Gallileos Choice
Will leave the handicaps until dec time.
Just for the record had a blinding Sunday watching men run around chasing an odd shaped ball round, backed the first try scorer at 14s and had score cast at 75-1 - unusual way to get some Cheltenham money together - with my knowledge of Rugby Union very poor it was very lucky!!! Man Utd went top .....If Carlsberg did Sundays .......
Sunday 19 February 2012
Cheltenham under 4/1 Favourite Rule
The Annual under 4/1 fav rule at Cheltenham UPDATE -
As it stands there are likely to be a number of horses that will run that will be under 4/1 starting price that will be fav at the 2012 festival - in the last four years there have been 67 horses to start as FAV that were priced under 4/1 - only 12 have won (Quevega /Big Bucks = huge % of the winners total as well !). Many greats have tried and been beaten - so no matter how certain you think you are be careful !
Losers total last three years - 55
2011
Cue Card lost 7/4 (Unplaced)
Medermitt lost 11/4 (Unplaced)
Definity lost 3/1(Unplaced)
So Young 2/1
Time for Rupert 7/4 (Unplaced)
Master Minded 2/1 (Unplaced)
Call the Police 7/2(Unplaced)
Wishful Thinking 7/2
Poquelin 2/1 (Unplaced)
Winners total last three years- 12
Hurricane Fly won 11/4
Quevega won 11/10
Big Bucks 10/11
Junior 10/3
2012 Potentials Under 4/1
Sprinter Sacre 6/4
Hurricane Fly 5/6
ScotsIrish 11/4
Quevega 4/6
Grand Cru 2/1
Sizing Europe 11/10
Big Bucks 4/7
Long Run 5/2
As it stands there are likely to be a number of horses that will run that will be under 4/1 starting price that will be fav at the 2012 festival - in the last four years there have been 67 horses to start as FAV that were priced under 4/1 - only 12 have won (Quevega /Big Bucks = huge % of the winners total as well !). Many greats have tried and been beaten - so no matter how certain you think you are be careful !
Losers total last three years - 55
2011
Cue Card lost 7/4 (Unplaced)
Medermitt lost 11/4 (Unplaced)
Definity lost 3/1(Unplaced)
So Young 2/1
Time for Rupert 7/4 (Unplaced)
Master Minded 2/1 (Unplaced)
Call the Police 7/2(Unplaced)
Wishful Thinking 7/2
Poquelin 2/1 (Unplaced)
Winners total last three years- 12
Hurricane Fly won 11/4
Quevega won 11/10
Big Bucks 10/11
Junior 10/3
2012 Potentials Under 4/1
Sprinter Sacre 6/4
Hurricane Fly 5/6
ScotsIrish 11/4
Quevega 4/6
Grand Cru 2/1
Sizing Europe 11/10
Big Bucks 4/7
Long Run 5/2
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