Sunday 27 February 2011

The Annual under 4/1 fav rule at Cheltenham

As it stands there are likely to be a number of horses that will run that will be under 4/1 starting price that will be fav at the 2011 festival - in the last three years there have been 46 horses to start as fav that were priced under 4/1 - only 8 have won (Quevega = 25% of the winners total as well !). Many greats have tried and been beaten - so no matter how certain you think you are be careful !

2010
The favs under 4/1
Losers
Dunguib 4/5, Captain Cee bee 5/2 (Unpl), Go Native 11/4 (Unpl), Garde Champetre 7/4 (unpl), Rite of Passage 7/2, Punchestowns 2/1 (Unpl), Master Minded 4/5 (Unpl), Shot from the Hip 3/1 (unpl), Alfie Sherrin 3/1 (unpl), Poquelin 11/4, Carlito Brigante 7/2 (unpl), Tell Massinni 10/3 (unpl), Kauto Star 8/11 (unpl)
Winners
Quevega 6/4, Big Bucks 5/6,

2009
The favs under 4/1 had a few winners 5 from 18
Cousin Vinny 9/4 (unp),Binocular 6/4,Lami 7/4,QUEVEGA 2/1
MIKAEL D ARGENT 5/2,COOLDINE 9/4,MASTER MINDED 4/11
Alexander Severus 11/4,Rite of Passage 5/2,Vor Por Ustedes 10/11,Kasbah Bliss 5/4 (unp),Poker di Siviola 7/2 (unp),Daves Dream 7/2 (unp),Pride of Dulcote,KAUTO STAR 7/4,Juveigner 7/2 (unp),Big Eared Fran 7/2,Poquelin 3/1 (unp)

The Ruby show came into town, with Nicholls hitting top form from day 3 - Mullins had a ball and no winners again for Hobbs, Pipe, Powell, Murphy. Top jocks dominated most of the races with very few shocks Walsh had 6, Geraghty 3, Mccoy 1.

2008
The age and finishing Stats didnt stand up this year with fine performances from Master Minded, Inglis Drever and Katchit defying stats and proving their undoubted talent.
Cheltenhams greatest stat stood up again though !

The Under 4/1 fav losers were out in force:
Kauto Star (evs), Franchoek (11/10), Ashkazar (15/8), Noland (7/4), Sizing Europe (2/1), Wonderkid (5/2), Vor Por ustedes (5/2), The Listener (10/3), Dont Push It (5/2), Zaarito (3/1), Chumba Wumba (10/3), My Petra (3/1)

13 Qualifiers - 12 Losers 4 Unplaced , 1 winner Inglis Drever 11/8 Win

Key Notes:
Bad week at the office for Noel Meade and Philip Hobbs two outstanding trainers had very quiet meetings.
Good week at the office for Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Howard Johnson