The Annual Cheltenham Blog

As the best four days racing arrives and grown men start shouting at TV's, even Tanya Stevenson from Channel 4 has had a haircut - what will win ? well firstly if I had a pound for every person who asks me for a winner I would be able to pay my mortgage off! it is a time for selecting what you feel and not betting too much !!!

I am not sure that the rule below will keep applying as the fields keep thinning out as more races are added, but the stats speak for themselves 1 in 5 horses that start at fav at less than 4/1 get beat that means out of Quevega 11/10, Time for Rupert 2/1, Cue Card 5/2, Imperial Commander 3/1 and Big Bucks 5/6 only one will win.

So remember the MOST IMPORTANT FACT IN Betting at Cheltenham

The Annual under 4/1 fav rule at Cheltenham
As it stands there are likely to be a number of horses that will run that will be under 4/1 starting price that will be fav at the 2011 festival - in the last three years there have been 46 horses to start as fav that were priced under 4/1 - only 8 have won (Quevega = 25% of the winners total as well !). Many greats have tried and been beaten - so no matter how certain you think you are be careful !

2010
The favs under 4/1
Losers
Dunguib 4/5, Captain Cee bee 5/2 (Unpl), Go Native 11/4 (Unpl), Garde Champetre 7/4 (unpl), Rite of Passage 7/2, Punchestowns 2/1 (Unpl), Master Minded 4/5 (Unpl), Shot from the Hip 3/1 (unpl), Alfie Sherrin 3/1 (unpl), Poquelin 11/4, Carlito Brigante 7/2 (unpl), Tell Massinni 10/3 (unpl), Kauto Star 8/11 (unpl)
Winners
Quevega 6/4, Big Bucks 5/6,


2011 Day 1 - Festival

The Arkle is my fav race at the festival for having a bet but not this year , a weak race and i just dont fancy any of the first five in the market - No bet

best bet on day 1 CUE CARD - in the opening race at 5/2 - he is plenty short enough but even with the stats against him this horse is top quality - a wee saver on Recession Proof will be worthwhile.

I really like Hurricane Fly and Menorah in the Champion Hurdle, but again it is a very tight race. SunnyhillBoy is the selection in the 2.40 , unlucky last year but a bit short at around 6/1. Quevega is the class act in the Mares race and at 11/10 should win in what is a very weak race.

Day 2
In the 4 mile chase I will stump for Chicago Grey but only if Quito De La Roque does not run. Best bet of Day 2 though is TIME FOR RUPERT in the RSA Chase he is a quality horse and a little saver on The Giant Bolster at 25/1 will give you a good run and offer great F/C material. The Queen Mother Champion Chase is a great race , past champions abound and I am praying for rain so that Golden Silver can show just how good a horse he is - if he doesnt win then Big Zeb and Master Minded will fight out the finish. Aegean Dawn has some how got in the Coral Cup off less than 11 stone so if he runs he has to be a bet as does Plan A in the Fred Winter.