As it stands there are likely to be a number of horses that will run that will be under 4/1 starting price that will be fav at the 2011 festival - in the last three years there have been 46 horses to start as fav that were priced under 4/1 - only 8 have won (Quevega = 25% of the winners total as well !). Many greats have tried and been beaten - so no matter how certain you think you are be careful !
2010
The favs under 4/1
Losers
Dunguib 4/5, Captain Cee bee 5/2 (Unpl), Go Native 11/4 (Unpl), Garde Champetre 7/4 (unpl), Rite of Passage 7/2, Punchestowns 2/1 (Unpl), Master Minded 4/5 (Unpl), Shot from the Hip 3/1 (unpl), Alfie Sherrin 3/1 (unpl), Poquelin 11/4, Carlito Brigante 7/2 (unpl), Tell Massinni 10/3 (unpl), Kauto Star 8/11 (unpl)
Winners
Quevega 6/4, Big Bucks 5/6,
2009
The favs under 4/1 had a few winners 5 from 18
Cousin Vinny 9/4 (unp),Binocular 6/4,Lami 7/4,QUEVEGA 2/1
MIKAEL D ARGENT 5/2,COOLDINE 9/4,MASTER MINDED 4/11
Alexander Severus 11/4,Rite of Passage 5/2,Vor Por Ustedes 10/11,Kasbah Bliss 5/4 (unp),Poker di Siviola 7/2 (unp),Daves Dream 7/2 (unp),Pride of Dulcote,KAUTO STAR 7/4,Juveigner 7/2 (unp),Big Eared Fran 7/2,Poquelin 3/1 (unp)
The Ruby show came into town, with Nicholls hitting top form from day 3 - Mullins had a ball and no winners again for Hobbs, Pipe, Powell, Murphy. Top jocks dominated most of the races with very few shocks Walsh had 6, Geraghty 3, Mccoy 1.
2008
The age and finishing Stats didnt stand up this year with fine performances from Master Minded, Inglis Drever and Katchit defying stats and proving their undoubted talent.
Cheltenhams greatest stat stood up again though !
The Under 4/1 fav losers were out in force:
Kauto Star (evs), Franchoek (11/10), Ashkazar (15/8), Noland (7/4), Sizing Europe (2/1), Wonderkid (5/2), Vor Por ustedes (5/2), The Listener (10/3), Dont Push It (5/2), Zaarito (3/1), Chumba Wumba (10/3), My Petra (3/1)
13 Qualifiers - 12 Losers 4 Unplaced , 1 winner Inglis Drever 11/8 Win
Key Notes:
Bad week at the office for Noel Meade and Philip Hobbs two outstanding trainers had very quiet meetings.
Good week at the office for Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Howard Johnson
Sunday, 27 February 2011
Tuesday, 16 March 2010
Day two - recovery time !
Tough day at the office for many punters on day 1 - me included - maybe writing will give some solace !
Firstly - nice neat trick with Binocular , get it ready for one race and one race only aka Granville Again ,all over Again! Secondly - Dunguib is still a good horse - just not as good as the two in front of him ! Novice Chasing next year me thinks
4 mile chase is a right off as a betting medium so second race brings first chance of betting recovery. Peddlers Cross is the nicest horse in the Donald Mccain stable so around 7/1 he must have a great chance. The Coral cup sees Wishful Thinking as a bet at around 12s , stable in form like the horse hugely.
Master Minded should win but wont be surprised to see Big Zeb run a race. The bumper will be won by a smart Irish horse I would think , which one I have no idea !
This new set of races and the flow of the festival is all over the show so the handicaps later in the day are near impossible, I just hope that Bocamix runs well for Andy Crook.
Firstly - nice neat trick with Binocular , get it ready for one race and one race only aka Granville Again ,all over Again! Secondly - Dunguib is still a good horse - just not as good as the two in front of him ! Novice Chasing next year me thinks
4 mile chase is a right off as a betting medium so second race brings first chance of betting recovery. Peddlers Cross is the nicest horse in the Donald Mccain stable so around 7/1 he must have a great chance. The Coral cup sees Wishful Thinking as a bet at around 12s , stable in form like the horse hugely.
Master Minded should win but wont be surprised to see Big Zeb run a race. The bumper will be won by a smart Irish horse I would think , which one I have no idea !
This new set of races and the flow of the festival is all over the show so the handicaps later in the day are near impossible, I just hope that Bocamix runs well for Andy Crook.
Friday, 12 March 2010
Cheltenham 2010
As Cheltenham rushes forward at pace I have fnally put my mind to looking at the best bets and chances.
Day 1 banker for most people will be DUNGUIB and I just cant oppose the horse, without being ungenuine to the jockey if a Top Jockey was on board then he would be 1 to 2 fav so the nearly evens must be a bet for those with the big betting pockets. The danger will be the Jonjo horse that won the Tote Trophy Get me out of here - but it has to be Dunguib.
The best bet of the week for me is RIVERSIDE THEATRE - I spend my life waiting for bets that stand out and I just cant get my mind away from this horse , he will battle when the other speed horse come off the bridal. I like Somersby in the same race and hopefully these two will battle it out with Geraghty just getting the better of Thornton.
The third bet has to be BENSALEM who has Cheltenham form, needs to improve his jumping but he is class and could be thrown in off 10.11.
The final two horses to look at will be WISHFUL THINKING and PEDDLERS CROSS - I am hoping that they don't run in the same race but fancy them both hugely.
There is value in the big races against the favorites and would think that an each way treble covering COOLDINE, KALAHARI KING and TIDAL BAY will bring fun.
My bet for top jockey is Barry Geraghty - just think that the Ruby express might not have as good a year as last - Ruby and Barry are the best jockey's round Cheltenham and you wont go far wrong following them in every race.
Day 1 banker for most people will be DUNGUIB and I just cant oppose the horse, without being ungenuine to the jockey if a Top Jockey was on board then he would be 1 to 2 fav so the nearly evens must be a bet for those with the big betting pockets. The danger will be the Jonjo horse that won the Tote Trophy Get me out of here - but it has to be Dunguib.
The best bet of the week for me is RIVERSIDE THEATRE - I spend my life waiting for bets that stand out and I just cant get my mind away from this horse , he will battle when the other speed horse come off the bridal. I like Somersby in the same race and hopefully these two will battle it out with Geraghty just getting the better of Thornton.
The third bet has to be BENSALEM who has Cheltenham form, needs to improve his jumping but he is class and could be thrown in off 10.11.
The final two horses to look at will be WISHFUL THINKING and PEDDLERS CROSS - I am hoping that they don't run in the same race but fancy them both hugely.
There is value in the big races against the favorites and would think that an each way treble covering COOLDINE, KALAHARI KING and TIDAL BAY will bring fun.
My bet for top jockey is Barry Geraghty - just think that the Ruby express might not have as good a year as last - Ruby and Barry are the best jockey's round Cheltenham and you wont go far wrong following them in every race.
Saturday, 6 March 2010
Cheltenham 2010
As it stands there are likely to be a number of horses that will run that will be under 4/1 starting price - in the last two years there have been 31 horses to start under 4/1 - only 6 have won.
The prices are shortening and my fav rule at Cheltenham is not to get too involved with the under 4/1 horses - around 20% only last two years and that is mainly due to the volume of winners last year.
This year - Dunguib 4/5, Captain Cee Bee 7/2, Garde Champetre 9/4, Quevega 11/8, Rite of Passage 3/1, Long Run 5/2, Master Minded evs, Big Bucks 8/13, Kauto Star 4/5, Roulez Coole 7/2
[b]2009[/b]
The favs under 4/1 had a few winners 5 from 18
Cousin Vinny 9/4 (unp),Binocular 6/4,Lami 7/4,QUEVEGA 2/1
MIKAEL D ARGENT 5/2,COOLDINE 9/4,MASTER MINDED 4/11
Alexander Severus 11/4,Rite of Passage 5/2,Vor Por Ustedes 10/11,Kasbah Bliss 5/4 (unp),Poker di Siviola 7/2 (unp),Daves Dream 7/2 (unp),Pride of Dulcote,KAUTO STAR 7/4,Juveigner 7/2 (unp),Big Eared Fran 7/2,Poquelin 3/1 (unp)
The Ruby show came into town, with Nicholls hitting top form from day 3 - Mullins had a ball and no winners again for Hobbs, Pipe, Powell, Murphy. Top jocks dominated most of the races with very few shocks Walsh had 6, Geraghty 3, Mccoy 1.
[b]2008[/b]
The age and finishing Stats didnt stand up this year with fine performances from Master Minded, Inglis Drever and Katchit defying stats and proving their undoubted talent.
Cheltenhams greatest stat stood up again though !
The Under 4/1 fav losers were out in force:
Kauto Star (evs), Franchoek (11/10), Ashkazar (15/8), Noland (7/4), Sizing Europe (2/1), Wonderkid (5/2), Vor Por ustedes (5/2), The Listener (10/3), Dont Push It (5/2), Zaarito (3/1), Chumba Wumba (10/3), My Petra (3/1)
13 Qualifiers - 12 Losers 4 Unplaced , 1 winner Inglis Drever 11/8 Win
Key Notes:
Bad week at the office for Noel Meade and Philip Hobbs two outstanding trainers had very quiet meetings.
Good week at the office for Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Howard Johnson
The prices are shortening and my fav rule at Cheltenham is not to get too involved with the under 4/1 horses - around 20% only last two years and that is mainly due to the volume of winners last year.
This year - Dunguib 4/5, Captain Cee Bee 7/2, Garde Champetre 9/4, Quevega 11/8, Rite of Passage 3/1, Long Run 5/2, Master Minded evs, Big Bucks 8/13, Kauto Star 4/5, Roulez Coole 7/2
[b]2009[/b]
The favs under 4/1 had a few winners 5 from 18
Cousin Vinny 9/4 (unp),Binocular 6/4,Lami 7/4,QUEVEGA 2/1
MIKAEL D ARGENT 5/2,COOLDINE 9/4,MASTER MINDED 4/11
Alexander Severus 11/4,Rite of Passage 5/2,Vor Por Ustedes 10/11,Kasbah Bliss 5/4 (unp),Poker di Siviola 7/2 (unp),Daves Dream 7/2 (unp),Pride of Dulcote,KAUTO STAR 7/4,Juveigner 7/2 (unp),Big Eared Fran 7/2,Poquelin 3/1 (unp)
The Ruby show came into town, with Nicholls hitting top form from day 3 - Mullins had a ball and no winners again for Hobbs, Pipe, Powell, Murphy. Top jocks dominated most of the races with very few shocks Walsh had 6, Geraghty 3, Mccoy 1.
[b]2008[/b]
The age and finishing Stats didnt stand up this year with fine performances from Master Minded, Inglis Drever and Katchit defying stats and proving their undoubted talent.
Cheltenhams greatest stat stood up again though !
The Under 4/1 fav losers were out in force:
Kauto Star (evs), Franchoek (11/10), Ashkazar (15/8), Noland (7/4), Sizing Europe (2/1), Wonderkid (5/2), Vor Por ustedes (5/2), The Listener (10/3), Dont Push It (5/2), Zaarito (3/1), Chumba Wumba (10/3), My Petra (3/1)
13 Qualifiers - 12 Losers 4 Unplaced , 1 winner Inglis Drever 11/8 Win
Key Notes:
Bad week at the office for Noel Meade and Philip Hobbs two outstanding trainers had very quiet meetings.
Good week at the office for Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Howard Johnson
Monday, 4 January 2010
It's about making money - 2010 actions
"Typical you get all the time in the year to look at form and then it snows and snows and snows and there is nothing to bet on!" is a comment just texted to me from a friend who is a really good punter and is having a family rather than a gambling Christmas. I think a little differently, this time is the one time in the year that you can clear your mind and look to deliver profits in the year ahead if your an all year round gambler or a good resting time if you just follow the jumpers. I try to only bet on the jumpers and use the summer to improve my golf swing, it works for me as I don't feel any need to be looking at Lingfield, Southwell, Wolverhampton or Kempton - just to have a wee bet - in the prolonged winter freezes. In the clearing ice zone I have examined the way I bet and these are my thoughts - that as I say work with me.
1) Nag Me - I don't do detail , I am a man, its just not what I do or in fact what most men do! This service is cheap and this year has yielded numerous winners for me at some hefty prices 14/1, 20/1, 7/1 etc - yes it has losers but it means I don't miss anything (having said that the BT Click service is useless and you get no notification that is expiring). Take the time to invest especially if you work and don't get chance to read the papers every day(there is nothing worse than looking at the results and thinking ARGHHHHHHHH a missed winner)it works well and as such makes certain that you don't miss those non triers or impressive winners.
2) I only use Betting exchanges or occasionally I will use Corals, the exchanges allow me to function as a trader and that is how I bet everyday. Every stake I place I put a lay up to get the stake back at around 2.12 and another bet under to take profit. I have analysed this and actually I bet more winners than losers so I could just stick with the winning bet, but it is not what I do - I bet value horses to trade and make a profit.The other sods law is that when you don't take the stake back, they dont win !
3) I use a daily stake whenever I start punting , which I then will only add too if I feel I need to - the target is £300 profit everytime I gamble. I will go upto a bigger figure especially if I am behind on a day as I treat the money as pts rather than money - it is just a figure a bit like chips in poker- if you think of it as money it stops you betting correctly
4) I dont listen to tips - from anyone ! I have lots of contacts very close to the heart of racing, to a man they are the worst tipsters you have ever seen.
5) Watching eye - A horse looks a certain way and somehow I have developed an eye that allows me to see when a horse looks well and happy - it works for me 75% of the time - I can't tell you how to get that eye but a happy horse has the air of a strutting athlete.
6) I am not a layer, I only lay when I get a situation that means a horse has to be laid - this will usually be if a horse looks awful or not fit, is far too short a price or if the horse can't go on the ground, Two trips this year yielded two different results, a horse of Ferdy Murphy's was as big as a bus at Carlisle he was a definite place lay at around 2.02 - I hit it hard - but it ran a blinder and ran on to be 2nd - it was the right bet on the wrong day. Same thought process was a Peter Monteith horse at 2.12 in a place market in a staying race at Kelso, the ground was heavy and his form on that was terrible he had to be a lay - he was duly unplaced and I won a good bet. These are extremes but I recently had a Tilt day where I lost a hefty stake, nearly 2/3rds of that was laying horses to be placed or to win at odds I thought were too short - I didn't get one right in 8 bets! and you tend to lay horses for more than you would put on as a win bet ! so when you lose you lose bigger - stay clear!
7) Certain horses by certain trainers are quite simply not off all the time, novice hurdlers up north, short priced horses for certain trainers, certain early season runners, certain Irish owned horses and of courses loads of drifters by certain stables - the trick is follow and learn and create your own strategies I have mine - you develop yours
8) You will have a day when you back loads of winners, everything goes right when it does just make certain that you have the doubles and trebles on !
1) Nag Me - I don't do detail , I am a man, its just not what I do or in fact what most men do! This service is cheap and this year has yielded numerous winners for me at some hefty prices 14/1, 20/1, 7/1 etc - yes it has losers but it means I don't miss anything (having said that the BT Click service is useless and you get no notification that is expiring). Take the time to invest especially if you work and don't get chance to read the papers every day(there is nothing worse than looking at the results and thinking ARGHHHHHHHH a missed winner)it works well and as such makes certain that you don't miss those non triers or impressive winners.
2) I only use Betting exchanges or occasionally I will use Corals, the exchanges allow me to function as a trader and that is how I bet everyday. Every stake I place I put a lay up to get the stake back at around 2.12 and another bet under to take profit. I have analysed this and actually I bet more winners than losers so I could just stick with the winning bet, but it is not what I do - I bet value horses to trade and make a profit.The other sods law is that when you don't take the stake back, they dont win !
3) I use a daily stake whenever I start punting , which I then will only add too if I feel I need to - the target is £300 profit everytime I gamble. I will go upto a bigger figure especially if I am behind on a day as I treat the money as pts rather than money - it is just a figure a bit like chips in poker- if you think of it as money it stops you betting correctly
4) I dont listen to tips - from anyone ! I have lots of contacts very close to the heart of racing, to a man they are the worst tipsters you have ever seen.
5) Watching eye - A horse looks a certain way and somehow I have developed an eye that allows me to see when a horse looks well and happy - it works for me 75% of the time - I can't tell you how to get that eye but a happy horse has the air of a strutting athlete.
6) I am not a layer, I only lay when I get a situation that means a horse has to be laid - this will usually be if a horse looks awful or not fit, is far too short a price or if the horse can't go on the ground, Two trips this year yielded two different results, a horse of Ferdy Murphy's was as big as a bus at Carlisle he was a definite place lay at around 2.02 - I hit it hard - but it ran a blinder and ran on to be 2nd - it was the right bet on the wrong day. Same thought process was a Peter Monteith horse at 2.12 in a place market in a staying race at Kelso, the ground was heavy and his form on that was terrible he had to be a lay - he was duly unplaced and I won a good bet. These are extremes but I recently had a Tilt day where I lost a hefty stake, nearly 2/3rds of that was laying horses to be placed or to win at odds I thought were too short - I didn't get one right in 8 bets! and you tend to lay horses for more than you would put on as a win bet ! so when you lose you lose bigger - stay clear!
7) Certain horses by certain trainers are quite simply not off all the time, novice hurdlers up north, short priced horses for certain trainers, certain early season runners, certain Irish owned horses and of courses loads of drifters by certain stables - the trick is follow and learn and create your own strategies I have mine - you develop yours
8) You will have a day when you back loads of winners, everything goes right when it does just make certain that you have the doubles and trebles on !
Sunday, 13 December 2009
I know I know its been ages since I blogged but
I have been busy , and my trips to the races have been limited - so here goes with some thoughts on a few horses and Cheltenham pointers -
Horses to Follow -
Shoreacres - lovely neat jumper , made to be a jumper of fences and has schooled well
Joncol - great scope and physical ability, ran a blinder first race of the season when needing it , won in great style last Sunday and will improve through the ranks at any rate of knotts
Dunguib - is simply sensational, If I could guarantee 2/1 and a run in the Supreme Novices you would haul on as much as you could
Mr Whickham - not been knocked about in any race yet, will improve when handicapped I presume
Riverside Theatre - is my long range bet for the Arkle - 16-1 is a nice price in what will be the race of the opening day of the festival
Punjabi - interesting to see he has drifted again for the champion hurdle after needing his run at Cheltenham on Saturday, Binocular is 11/2 i know which one I prefer at the moment
anyway enough for now, the annual Adbrokes day out is on the 21st of December at Musselburgh - I have a winner for the novice hurdle
Horses to Follow -
Shoreacres - lovely neat jumper , made to be a jumper of fences and has schooled well
Joncol - great scope and physical ability, ran a blinder first race of the season when needing it , won in great style last Sunday and will improve through the ranks at any rate of knotts
Dunguib - is simply sensational, If I could guarantee 2/1 and a run in the Supreme Novices you would haul on as much as you could
Mr Whickham - not been knocked about in any race yet, will improve when handicapped I presume
Riverside Theatre - is my long range bet for the Arkle - 16-1 is a nice price in what will be the race of the opening day of the festival
Punjabi - interesting to see he has drifted again for the champion hurdle after needing his run at Cheltenham on Saturday, Binocular is 11/2 i know which one I prefer at the moment
anyway enough for now, the annual Adbrokes day out is on the 21st of December at Musselburgh - I have a winner for the novice hurdle
Saturday, 3 October 2009
Kelso Race by race
2.20
Prioryjo has had many chances and this has to be the weakest of the lot, well handicapped on a couple of runs and having his first run for a new stable he is probably the safest selection. The outsider for the race is the lightly raced Mccormack, who having left Micky Hammond runs for the very talented Tina Jackson- could spring a surprise if he looks as well as he did for his first run on the flat this year.
2.55
Tough typical early season race and purely on course form Super Baby is the selection
3.30
Another tricky race and though I like the Howard Johnson Night Force who if fit will go close the recent impressive Perth winner Now this is it looks worthy favorite material
4.05
Avitus rates a bet in the Novice Hurdle a race that Micky Hammond has won twice in the last four years, he has a good line on the hurdlers with a recent winner and as such Avitus a good flat performer sits as the type of horse that Micky does well with.
4.35
A very weak race with a mix of average hurdlers and miss matched first time chasers, I will take a chance on the fences allowing Farne Island to get the trip but it is only a small fancy.
5.10
A good hurdle with lots of angles, Hello Nod only just gets the trip so the long run in might see him fall short - his run at Hexham three runs ago is the best recent form though. Caravel won with plenty in hand last year before being caught out by a top class field in the Imperial Cup - fully fit even off top weight he will go close. Last years winner Border Tale and the ex Nicky Henderson horse Stellino represent the useful trainer Jimmy Moffatt and the fit Fistral runs for the jockeys agent Richard Hale. The selection is Border Tale to follow up his win last year, the parade ring will tell me how fit he is and as such how large a bet !
The two bumpers will be paddock watches and as such no bet can be given.
Prioryjo has had many chances and this has to be the weakest of the lot, well handicapped on a couple of runs and having his first run for a new stable he is probably the safest selection. The outsider for the race is the lightly raced Mccormack, who having left Micky Hammond runs for the very talented Tina Jackson- could spring a surprise if he looks as well as he did for his first run on the flat this year.
2.55
Tough typical early season race and purely on course form Super Baby is the selection
3.30
Another tricky race and though I like the Howard Johnson Night Force who if fit will go close the recent impressive Perth winner Now this is it looks worthy favorite material
4.05
Avitus rates a bet in the Novice Hurdle a race that Micky Hammond has won twice in the last four years, he has a good line on the hurdlers with a recent winner and as such Avitus a good flat performer sits as the type of horse that Micky does well with.
4.35
A very weak race with a mix of average hurdlers and miss matched first time chasers, I will take a chance on the fences allowing Farne Island to get the trip but it is only a small fancy.
5.10
A good hurdle with lots of angles, Hello Nod only just gets the trip so the long run in might see him fall short - his run at Hexham three runs ago is the best recent form though. Caravel won with plenty in hand last year before being caught out by a top class field in the Imperial Cup - fully fit even off top weight he will go close. Last years winner Border Tale and the ex Nicky Henderson horse Stellino represent the useful trainer Jimmy Moffatt and the fit Fistral runs for the jockeys agent Richard Hale. The selection is Border Tale to follow up his win last year, the parade ring will tell me how fit he is and as such how large a bet !
The two bumpers will be paddock watches and as such no bet can be given.
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